Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) Fair Value 2026

LOB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) trades at $39.98, versus a $26.40 median fair value across its 5 active models — 34.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LOB
Price
$39.98
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $26.40, 34.0% below the current price of $39.98. Estimates range from $0.72 to $64.89. LOB scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LOB’s -34.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LOB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.40 -34.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $16.52 -58.7%
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What Is LOB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.72 to $64.89

CirclFi's 5 active models place Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) between $0.72 and $64.89 per share, a spread of 243% of the median. The median of that range — $26.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LOB, against a current price of $39.98.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$0.72median $26.40$64.89
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$64.89
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LOB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LOB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $26.40, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $39.98. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-34.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $64.89 (+62.3%), versus Markov DDM at $0.72 (-98.2%). This +160.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LOB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for LOB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LOB is $26.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LOB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, LOB ranks #100 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places LOB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. competes in an environment where return on tangible equity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LOB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LOB a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +160.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LOB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LOB's 5 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 8.3CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3MFGMizuho Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.3PLBCPlumas BancorpQOC 8.3TBBKThe Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3FULTFulton Financial CorporationQOC 8.3SFBCSound Financial Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9SHGShinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.QOC 7.4WSFSWSFS Financial CorporationQOC 8.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: AX · CARE · MFG · PLBC · TBBK · FULT · SFBC · SHG · WSFS · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LOB?

6 companies across all industries closest to LOB’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

THCTenet Healthcare CorporationQOC 8.3WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3EQIXEquinix, Inc.QOC 8.3CENTCentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.3LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: THC · WRB · EQIX · CENT · LOW · NVDA

Where Does LOB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

LOB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB)'s intrinsic value at $26.40 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.72 to $64.89. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LOB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.98, 1 of 5 active models suggest LOB may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $26.40, 34.0% below the current price of $39.98 — a consensus view that LOB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for LOB?

Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LOB?

CirclFi analyzes LOB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LOB?

Of the 5 models currently active on LOB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $64.89 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.72. CirclFi's published fair value for LOB is the median of that range, $26.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 243% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LOB a value trap in 2026?

Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. (LOB) has a median fair value of $26.40 — 34.0% below the current price of $39.98 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LOB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LOB valuation
  • Financial statements: Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001462120) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LOB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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