Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) Fair Value 2026

MFG · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) trades at $10.44, versus a $12.81 median fair value across its 6 active models — 22.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MFG
Price
$10.44
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +51.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $12.81, 22.7% above the current price of $10.44. Estimates range from $4.69 to $19.65. MFG scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MFG’s +22.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MFG?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.69 -55.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $12.18 +16.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.78 +51.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 6 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MFG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $4.69 to $19.65

CirclFi's 6 active models place Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) between $4.69 and $19.65 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $12.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MFG, against a current price of $10.44.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$4.69median $12.81$19.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.69
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$19.65
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MFG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MFG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $12.81, suggesting a +22.7% median upside from the current price of $10.44. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $19.65 (+88.2%), versus EPV at $4.69 (-55.1%). This +143.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MFG?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MFG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MFG is $12.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MFG Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, MFG ranks #98 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places MFG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MFG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MFG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +143.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MFG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MFG's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

TBBKThe Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 8.3ASBAssociated Banc-CorpQOC 8.3LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3SFBSServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3CNOBConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9MRBKMeridian CorporationQOC 7.4FXNCFirst National CorporationQOC 8.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TBBK · AX · ASB · LOB · SFBS · CARE · CNOB · MRBK · FXNC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MFG?

5 companies across all industries closest to MFG’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

HALHalliburton CompanyQOC 8.3RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 8.3UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HAL · RSI · UDR · IQV · NVDA

Where Does MFG Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

MFG is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG)'s intrinsic value at $12.81 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.69 to $19.65. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MFG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.44, 4 of 6 active models suggest MFG may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $12.81, 22.7% above the current price of $10.44 — a consensus view that MFG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for MFG?

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MFG?

CirclFi analyzes MFG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MFG?

Of the 6 models currently active on MFG, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $19.65 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.69. CirclFi's published fair value for MFG is the median of that range, $12.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MFG a value trap in 2026?

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. (MFG) has a median fair value of $12.81 — 22.7% above the current price of $10.44 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MFG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MFG valuation
  • Financial statements: Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001335730) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MFG as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 6 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MFG.

Unlock All 6 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for MFG Unlock All 6 — $39/mo