Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Fair Value 2026

WTRG · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) trades at $40.55, versus a $37.29 median fair value across its 12 active models — 8.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $125.56.

Key Facts

Ticker
WTRG
Price
$40.55
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +209.6% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $37.29, within 8.0% of the current price of $40.55. Estimates range from $8.10 to $125.56. WTRG scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WTRG’s -8.0% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Essential Utilities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WTRG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $125.56 +209.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.10 -80.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $33.36 -17.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.99 -50.7%
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What Is WTRG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $8.10 to $125.56

CirclFi's 12 active models place Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) between $8.10 and $125.56 per share, a spread of 315% of the median. The median of that range — $37.29 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WTRG, against a current price of $40.55.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$8.10median $37.29$125.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$8.10
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$125.56
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WTRG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WTRG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Essential Utilities, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $37.29, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $40.55. While the median implied return is -8.0%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +289.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $125.56 (+209.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $8.10 (-80.0%). This +289.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Essential Utilities, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About WTRG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for WTRG. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WTRG is $37.29 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $125.56 on its own, implying +209.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WTRG Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, WTRG ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places WTRG in the top tier.

The Utilities - Regulated Water sector introduces analytical considerations specific to utility businesses. For Essential Utilities, Inc., metrics like payout ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is WTRG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WTRG a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Essential Utilities, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Essential Utilities, Inc. scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +289.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WTRG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WTRG's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Essential Utilities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · HTO · CWT · PCYO · AWR · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WTRG?

7 companies across all industries closest to WTRG’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3MODModine Manufacturing CompanyQOC 8.3UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3ALABAstera Labs, Inc.QOC 8.3HALHalliburton CompanyQOC 8.3LIFLife360, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IQV · MOD · UDR · ALAB · HAL · LIF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Essential Utilities, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Essential Utilities, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG)'s intrinsic value at $37.29 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $8.10 to $125.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $125.56 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WTRG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.55, 6 of 12 active models suggest WTRG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $37.29, within 8.0% of the current price of $40.55 — a consensus view that WTRG is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Essential Utilities, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for WTRG?

Essential Utilities, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WTRG?

CirclFi analyzes WTRG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WTRG?

Of the 12 models currently active on WTRG, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $125.56 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $8.10. CirclFi's published fair value for WTRG is the median of that range, $37.29, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 315% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WTRG a value trap in 2026?

Essential Utilities, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Essential Utilities, Inc. (WTRG) has a median fair value of $37.29 — within 8.0% of the current price of $40.55 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WTRG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WTRG valuation
  • Financial statements: Essential Utilities, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000078128) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WTRG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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