Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) Fair Value 2026

CWCO · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) trades at $30.38, versus a $20.17 median fair value across its 11 active models — 33.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $26.04.

Key Facts

Ticker
CWCO
Price
$30.38
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $20.17, 33.6% below the current price of $30.38. Estimates range from $10.83 to $44.00. CWCO scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CWCO’s -33.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CWCO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.04 -14.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.84 -44.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $20.17 -33.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.91 -47.6%
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What Is CWCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $10.83 to $44.00

CirclFi's 11 active models place Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) between $10.83 and $44.00 per share, a spread of 164% of the median. The median of that range — $20.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CWCO, against a current price of $30.38.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.83median $20.17$44.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$10.83
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$44.00
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CWCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CWCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $20.17. Trading at its current price of $30.38, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -33.6%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $44.00 (+44.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $10.83 (-64.4%). This +109.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CWCO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CWCO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CWCO is $20.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $26.04 on its own, implying -14.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CWCO Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, CWCO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places CWCO in the top tier.

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Water segment means that rate base growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification demand growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CWCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CWCO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CWCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CWCO's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 6.9CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · HTO · WTRG · CWT · PCYO · AWR · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CWCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to CWCO’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 8.9PLABPhotronics, Inc.QOC 8.9SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHWY · PLAB · SPXC · WAB · ERIE · TJX · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)'s intrinsic value at $20.17 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.83 to $44.00. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $26.04 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CWCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.38, 1 of 11 active models suggest CWCO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $20.17, 33.6% below the current price of $30.38 — a consensus view that CWCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for CWCO?

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CWCO?

CirclFi analyzes CWCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CWCO?

Of the 11 models currently active on CWCO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $44.00 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $10.83. CirclFi's published fair value for CWCO is the median of that range, $20.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 164% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CWCO a value trap in 2026?

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO) has a median fair value of $20.17 — 33.6% below the current price of $30.38 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CWCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CWCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000928340) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CWCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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