Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Fair Value 2026

MSEX · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) trades at $57.86, versus a $27.41 median fair value across its 9 active models — 52.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MSEX
Price
$57.86
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $27.41, 52.6% below the current price of $57.86. Estimates range from $9.77 to $77.91. MSEX scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MSEX’s -52.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Middlesex Water Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MSEX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $27.41 -52.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.21 -77.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.49 -69.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.94 -56.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including Dynamic NAV, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MSEX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $9.77 to $77.91

CirclFi's 9 active models place Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) between $9.77 and $77.91 per share, a spread of 249% of the median. The median of that range — $27.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MSEX, against a current price of $57.86.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$9.77median $27.41$77.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$9.77
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$77.91
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MSEX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MSEX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Middlesex Water Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $27.41, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $57.86. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-52.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $77.91 (+34.7%), versus Dynamic NAV at $9.77 (-83.1%). This +117.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MSEX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MSEX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MSEX is $27.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MSEX Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, MSEX ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Water space, Middlesex Water Company competes in an environment where payout ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MSEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MSEX a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Middlesex Water Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Middlesex Water Company is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +117.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MSEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MSEX's 9 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Middlesex Water Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · HTO · WTRG · CWT · PCYO · AWR · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MSEX?

7 companies across all industries closest to MSEX’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

SPBSpectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.7HLLYHolley Inc.QOC 7.7CMCCommercial Metals CompanyQOC 7.7NCTIntercont (Cayman) LimitedQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPB · VSNT · NUS · HLLY · CMC · NCT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Middlesex Water Company’s Valuation?

What is Middlesex Water Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)'s intrinsic value at $27.41 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.77 to $77.91. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MSEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.86, 1 of 9 active models suggest MSEX may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $27.41, 52.6% below the current price of $57.86 — a consensus view that MSEX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Middlesex Water Company's business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for MSEX?

Middlesex Water Company's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MSEX?

CirclFi analyzes MSEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MSEX?

Of the 9 models currently active on MSEX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $77.91 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $9.77. CirclFi's published fair value for MSEX is the median of that range, $27.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 249% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MSEX a value trap in 2026?

Middlesex Water Company's Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) has a median fair value of $27.41 — 52.6% below the current price of $57.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MSEX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MSEX valuation
  • Financial statements: Middlesex Water Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000066004) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MSEX as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MSEX.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for MSEX Unlock All 9 — $39/mo