H2O America (HTO) Fair Value 2026

HTO · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, H2O America (HTO) trades at $63.10, versus a $40.34 median fair value across its 12 active models — 36.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $186.79.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTO
Price
$63.10
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +196.0% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is H2O America (HTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, H2O America (HTO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $40.34, 36.1% below the current price of $63.10. Estimates range from $14.77 to $186.79. HTO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HTO’s -36.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy H2O America Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HTO?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($63.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $186.79 +196.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.77 -76.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $45.39 -28.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.34 -50.3%
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What Is HTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $14.77 to $186.79

CirclFi's 12 active models place H2O America (HTO) between $14.77 and $186.79 per share, a spread of 426% of the median. The median of that range — $40.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HTO, against a current price of $63.10.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$14.77median $40.34$186.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$14.77
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$186.79
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is H2O America (HTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on H2O America at its current price of $63.10. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $40.34 (-36.1% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +196.0% (fair value: $186.79), while EPV is the most conservative at -76.6% ($14.77). The spread between these extremes — +272.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HTO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HTO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HTO is $40.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $186.79 on its own, implying +196.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTO Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, HTO ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places HTO in the top tier.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Water space, H2O America competes in an environment where renewable generation mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is HTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for H2O America. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, H2O America's fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +272.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTO's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy H2O America Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1AWRAmerican States Water CompanyQOC 7.9MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · WTRG · CWT · PCYO · AWR · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HTO?

7 companies across all industries closest to HTO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

BKRBaker Hughes CompanyQOC 8.5AFYAAfya LimitedQOC 8.5PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5LNGCheniere Energy, Inc.QOC 8.5ADMAADMA Biologics, Inc.QOC 8.5DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BKR · AFYA · PSMT · LNG · ADMA · DMLP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About H2O America’s Valuation?

What is H2O America's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts H2O America (HTO)'s intrinsic value at $40.34 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.77 to $186.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $186.79 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $63.10, 5 of 12 active models suggest HTO may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $40.34, 36.1% below the current price of $63.10 — a consensus view that HTO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits H2O America's business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for HTO?

H2O America's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTO?

CirclFi analyzes HTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HTO?

Of the 12 models currently active on HTO, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $186.79 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $14.77. CirclFi's published fair value for HTO is the median of that range, $40.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 426% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HTO a value trap in 2026?

H2O America's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, H2O America (HTO) has a median fair value of $40.34 — 36.1% below the current price of $63.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HTO valuation
  • Financial statements: H2O America 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000766829) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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