American States Water Company (AWR) Fair Value 2026

AWR · Utilities - Regulated Water ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, American States Water Company (AWR) trades at $88.87, versus a $44.79 median fair value across its 9 active models — 49.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AWR
Price
$88.87
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is American States Water Company (AWR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, American States Water Company (AWR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $44.79, 49.6% below the current price of $88.87. Estimates range from $24.28 to $71.12. AWR scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AWR’s -49.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy American States Water Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AWR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($88.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.28 -72.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $40.30 -54.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.55 -66.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.79 -49.6%
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What Is AWR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $24.28 to $71.12

CirclFi's 9 active models place American States Water Company (AWR) between $24.28 and $71.12 per share, a spread of 105% of the median. The median of that range — $44.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AWR, against a current price of $88.87.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$24.28median $44.79$71.12
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$24.28
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$71.12
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AWR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AWR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is American States Water Company (AWR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American States Water Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $44.79. Trading at its current price of $88.87, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -49.6%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $71.12 (-20.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $24.28 (-72.7%). This +52.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about American States Water Company's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AWR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AWR. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AWR is $44.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AWR Rank in Utilities - Regulated Water?

Among 12 Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, AWR ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Water sector introduces analytical considerations specific to utility businesses. For American States Water Company, metrics like earned vs. allowed ROE provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AWR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AWR a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for American States Water Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, American States Water Company earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +52.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AWR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AWR's 9 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American States Water Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Water Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Water stocks with 13-model coverage

SBSCompanhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESPQOC 9.3HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5WTRGEssential Utilities, Inc.QOC 8.3CWTCalifornia Water Service GroupQOC 8.1PCYOPure Cycle CorporationQOC 8.1MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyQOC 7.7AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc.QOC 7.6YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0CDZICadiz Inc.QOC 5.4CETICyber Enviro-Tech, Inc.QOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: SBS · HTO · WTRG · CWT · PCYO · MSEX · AWK · YORW · GWRS · CDZI · CETI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AWR?

7 companies across all industries closest to AWR’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

NETCloudflare, Inc.QOC 7.9FAFFirst American Financial CorporationQOC 7.9CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9ORealty Income CorporationQOC 7.9CRCTCricut, Inc.QOC 7.9MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NET · FAF · CCK · O · CRCT · MUFG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About American States Water Company’s Valuation?

What is American States Water Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts American States Water Company (AWR)'s intrinsic value at $44.79 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $24.28 to $71.12. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AWR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $88.87, 0 of 9 active models suggest AWR may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $44.79, 49.6% below the current price of $88.87 — a consensus view that AWR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American States Water Company's business model in Utilities - Regulated Water.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for AWR?

American States Water Company's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AWR?

CirclFi analyzes AWR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AWR?

Of the 9 models currently active on AWR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $71.12 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $24.28. CirclFi's published fair value for AWR is the median of that range, $44.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 105% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AWR a value trap in 2026?

American States Water Company's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, American States Water Company (AWR) has a median fair value of $44.79 — 49.6% below the current price of $88.87 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AWR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AWR valuation
  • Financial statements: American States Water Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001056903) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AWR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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