What Is American States Water Company (AWR) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American States Water Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $42.80. Trading at its current price of $85.04, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -49.7%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $86.03 (+1.2%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $2.73 (-96.8%). This +98.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about American States Water Company's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About AWR?
13 of 13 models are currently active for AWR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AWR's intrinsic value at $3.63, implying -95.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AWR Rank in Water Supply?
Among 11 Water Supply stocks, AWR ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AWR in the top tier.
The Water Supply sector introduces analytical considerations specific to utility businesses. For American States Water Company, metrics like earned vs. allowed ROE provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is AWR a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AWR a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for American States Water Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, American States Water Company earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +98.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AWR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AWR's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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