Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Fair Value 2026

WDS · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) trades at $23.29, versus a $20.95 median fair value across its 10 active models — 10.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
WDS
Price
$23.29
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +25.5% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.95, 10.0% below the current price of $23.29. Estimates range from $5.71 to $87.55. WDS scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WDS’s -10.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Woodside Energy Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WDS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.22 +12.6%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $29.24 +25.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.34 -4.1%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.73 -49.6%
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What Is WDS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $5.71 to $87.55

CirclFi's 10 active models place Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) between $5.71 and $87.55 per share, a spread of 391% of the median. The median of that range — $20.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WDS, against a current price of $23.29.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$5.71median $20.95$87.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$5.71
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$87.55
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WDS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WDS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Woodside Energy Group Ltd's intrinsic value is estimated at $20.95, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $23.29. With a median implied return of -10.0% across a split 3–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +351.4% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +275.9% (fair value: $87.55), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -75.5% ($5.71). The spread between these extremes — +351.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About WDS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for WDS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WDS is $20.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WDS Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, WDS ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places WDS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Woodside Energy Group Ltd's positioning within the Oil & Gas E&P segment means that breakeven oil price plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including commodity price environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is WDS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WDS a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Woodside Energy Group Ltd. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Woodside Energy Group Ltd scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +351.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WDS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WDS's 10 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Woodside Energy Group Ltd Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P.QOC 8.5CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4HPKHighPeak Energy, Inc.QOC 8.6MXCMexco Energy CorporationQOC 8.4EQTEQT CorporationQOC 8.7AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.QOC 8.4RSRVThe Reserve Petroleum CompanyQOC 7.7BRNBarnwell Industries, Inc.QOC 5.9NRISNorris Industries, Inc.QOC 4.4TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: DMLP · CKX · HPK · MXC · EQT · AMPY · RSRV · BRN · NRIS · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WDS?

7 companies across all industries closest to WDS’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

WDLFDecentral Life, Inc.QOC 8.5WLDNWilldan Group, Inc.QOC 8.5VASOVaso CorporationQOC 8.5HBTHBT Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5GSKGSK plcQOC 8.5RSSSResearch Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WDLF · WLDN · VASO · HBT · GSK · RSSS · NVDA

Where Does WDS Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

WDS is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Woodside Energy Group Ltd’s Valuation?

What is Woodside Energy Group Ltd's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)'s intrinsic value at $20.95 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.71 to $87.55. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WDS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.29, 3 of 10 active models suggest WDS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.95, 10.0% below the current price of $23.29 — a consensus view that WDS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Woodside Energy Group Ltd's business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for WDS?

Woodside Energy Group Ltd's QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WDS?

CirclFi analyzes WDS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WDS?

Of the 10 models currently active on WDS, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $87.55 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $5.71. CirclFi's published fair value for WDS is the median of that range, $20.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 391% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WDS a value trap in 2026?

Woodside Energy Group Ltd's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) has a median fair value of $20.95 — 10.0% below the current price of $23.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WDS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WDS valuation
  • Financial statements: Woodside Energy Group Ltd 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000844551) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WDS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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