United-Guardian, Inc. (UG) Fair Value 2026

UG · Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, United-Guardian, Inc. (UG) trades at $7.25, approximately 8% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.87. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UG
Price
$7.25
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +8.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$7.87 +8.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$6.87 -5.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$6.51 -10.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$5.15 -29.0%

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What Is United-Guardian, Inc. (UG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, United-Guardian, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $6.07. Trading at $7.25, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.3%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $9.33 (+28.7%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.45 (-80.0%). This +108.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about United-Guardian, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About UG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for UG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UG's intrinsic value at $7.87, implying +8.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UG Rank in Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations?

Among 20 Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations stocks, UG ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places UG in the top tier.

The Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For United-Guardian, Inc., metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is UG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for United-Guardian, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, United-Guardian, Inc. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +108.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UG's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy United-Guardian, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: IPAR · ODD · CL · HLN · ELF

Frequently Asked Questions About United-Guardian, Inc.

What is United-Guardian, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, United-Guardian, Inc. (UG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.87. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.25, 4 of 12 active models suggest UG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits United-Guardian, Inc.'s business model in Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for UG?

United-Guardian, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UG?

CirclFi analyzes UG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is UG a value trap in 2026?

United-Guardian, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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