Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Fair Value 2026

BILI · Internet Content & Information ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) trades at $16.60, versus a $14.41 median fair value across its 9 active models — 13.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $32.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
BILI
Price
$16.60
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +93.3% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $14.41, 13.2% below the current price of $16.60. Estimates range from $0.86 to $32.09. BILI scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BILI’s -13.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Internet Content & Information sector median is -13.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bilibili Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BILI?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.09 +93.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.77 +7.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $14.41 -13.2%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.90 -76.5%
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What Is BILI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.86 to $32.09

CirclFi's 9 active models place Bilibili Inc. (BILI) between $0.86 and $32.09 per share, a spread of 217% of the median. The median of that range — $14.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BILI, against a current price of $16.60.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$0.86median $14.41$32.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.86
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$32.09
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BILI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BILI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $14.41. Trading at $16.60, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -13.2%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $32.09 (+93.3%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.86 (-94.8%). This +188.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BILI?

9 of 13 models are currently active for BILI. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BILI is $14.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $32.09 on its own, implying +93.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BILI Rank in Internet Content & Information?

Among 78 Internet Content & Information stocks, BILI ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places BILI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Internet Content & Information Stocks →

Bilibili Inc.'s positioning within the Internet Content & Information segment means that R&D intensity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including total addressable market (TAM) expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BILI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BILI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Bilibili Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Bilibili Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BILI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BILI's 9 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bilibili Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Content & Information Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Content & Information stocks with 13-model coverage

WBWeibo CorporationQOC 8.4OPRAOpera LimitedQOC 8.3EVEREverQuote, Inc.QOC 8.5TMETencent Music Entertainment GroupQOC 8.0SOGPSound Group Inc.QOC 8.6SSTKShutterstock, Inc.QOC 8.0ARENThe Arena Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.8WBTNWEBTOON Entertainment Inc.QOC 6.0CHAICore AI HoldingsQOC 4.0GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: WB · OPRA · EVER · TME · SOGP · SSTK · AREN · WBTN · CHAI · GOOG · META

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BILI?

7 companies across all industries closest to BILI’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

NSCNorfolk Southern CorporationQOC 8.3WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3MALGMicroalliance Group Inc.QOC 8.3CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3AMRXAmneal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NSC · WWW · MALG · CARE · AMRX · ETD · NVDA

Where Does BILI Sit in CirclFi's Internet Content & Information Rankings?

BILI is ranked against every other Internet Content & Information stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Internet Content & Information stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bilibili Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bilibili Inc. (BILI)'s intrinsic value at $14.41 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.86 to $32.09. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $32.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BILI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.60, 3 of 9 active models suggest BILI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $14.41, 13.2% below the current price of $16.60 — a consensus view that BILI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bilibili Inc.'s business model in Internet Content & Information.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for BILI?

Bilibili Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BILI?

CirclFi analyzes BILI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BILI?

Of the 9 models currently active on BILI, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $32.09 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.86. CirclFi's published fair value for BILI is the median of that range, $14.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 217% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BILI a value trap in 2026?

Bilibili Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) has a median fair value of $14.41 — 13.2% below the current price of $16.60 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BILI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BILI valuation
  • Financial statements: Bilibili Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001723690) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BILI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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