Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Fair Value 2026

BILI · Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) trades at $17.48, approximately 20% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $21.77. QOC: 7.8/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BILI
Price
$17.48
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +24.5% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $21.77 +24.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $13.42 -23.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $12.89 -26.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $9.89 -43.4%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Bilibili Inc. (BILI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $12.64. Trading at $17.48, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.7%), as 9 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $29.69 (+69.9%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $1.23 (-93.0%). This +162.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BILI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for BILI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BILI's intrinsic value at $21.77, implying +24.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BILI Rank in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation?

Among 69 Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks, BILI ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks →

Bilibili Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BILI a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BILI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Bilibili Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Bilibili Inc. earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +162.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BILI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BILI's 13 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bilibili Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks with 13-model coverage

INODInnodata Inc.QOC 10.0IBEXIBEX LimitedQOC 10.0UPWKUpwork Inc.QOC 9.9CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5TRAKReposiTrak, Inc.QOC 9.4RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2RDDTReddit, Inc.QOC 9.0OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: INOD · IBEX · UPWK · CARG · TRAK

See all Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Bilibili Inc.

What is Bilibili Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Bilibili Inc. (BILI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $21.77. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BILI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.48, 4 of 13 active models suggest BILI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bilibili Inc.'s business model in Services-Computer Processing & Data Preparation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for BILI?

Bilibili Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BILI?

CirclFi analyzes BILI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BILI a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BILI at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on BILI.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access