Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) Fair Value 2026

OXY · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) trades at $53.77, approximately 165% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $20.30. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OXY
Price
$53.77
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +28.0% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $42.05, 21.8% below the current price of $53.77. Estimates range from $1.50 to $97.93. OXY scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Occidental Petroleum Corporatio Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
 $20.30 -62.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $1.50 -97.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $45.86 -14.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $68.83 +28.0%

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What Is Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $45.80. Trading at $53.78, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -14.8%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +82.1% (fair value: $97.93), while EPV is the most conservative at -97.2% ($1.50). The spread between these extremes — +179.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OXY?

13 of 13 models are currently active for OXY. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OXY's intrinsic value at $20.30, implying -62.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OXY Rank in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas?

Among 80 Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks, OXY ranks #51 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks →

The Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to oil and gas company businesses. For Occidental Petroleum Corporatio, metrics like reserve life index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is OXY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OXY a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Occidental Petroleum Corporatio. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OXY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OXY's 13 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Occidental Petroleum Corporatio Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

EOGEOG Resources, Inc.QOC 10.0MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 10.0HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.7PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 9.5FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.QOC 9.5EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 9.4DVNDevon Energy CorporationQOC 9.4SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EOG · MGY · HESM · PR · FANG

See all Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Occidental Petroleum Corporatio

What is Occidental Petroleum Corporatio's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $20.30. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OXY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.77, 4 of 13 active models suggest OXY may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $42.05, 21.8% below the current price of $53.77 — a consensus view that OXY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Occidental Petroleum Corporatio's business model in Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for OXY?

Occidental Petroleum Corporatio's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OXY?

CirclFi analyzes OXY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OXY a value trap in 2026?

Occidental Petroleum Corporatio's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Occidental Petroleum Corporatio (OXY) has a median fair value of $42.05 — 21.8% below the current price of $53.77 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OXY/ · Methodology

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