Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Fair Value 2026

CRTO · Advertising Agencies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Criteo S.A. (CRTO) trades at $17.24, versus a $45.04 median fair value across its 11 active models — 161.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $52.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRTO
Price
$17.24
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +204.4% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Criteo S.A. (CRTO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $45.04, 161.3% above the current price of $17.24. Estimates range from $7.99 to $70.59. CRTO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CRTO’s +161.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Advertising Agencies sector median is +3.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Criteo S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRTO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.48 +204.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.75 +3.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $38.15 +121.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.04 +161.3%
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What Is CRTO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.99 to $70.59

CirclFi's 11 active models place Criteo S.A. (CRTO) between $7.99 and $70.59 per share, a spread of 139% of the median. The median of that range — $45.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRTO, against a current price of $17.24.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$7.99median $45.04$70.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.99
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$70.59
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CRTO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRTO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Criteo S.A. at $17.24. With an estimated intrinsic value of $45.04 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +161.3%. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $70.59 (+309.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $7.99 (-53.7%). This +363.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Criteo S.A.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CRTO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CRTO. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CRTO is $45.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $52.48 on its own, implying +204.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRTO Rank in Advertising Agencies?

Among 48 Advertising Agencies stocks, CRTO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places CRTO in the top tier.

Criteo S.A. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CRTO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRTO a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Criteo S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Criteo S.A. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +363.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRTO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRTO's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Criteo S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Advertising Agencies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Advertising Agencies stocks with 13-model coverage

KRKR36Kr Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5ZDZiff Davis, Inc.QOC 8.0DVDoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7ACCSACCESS Newswire Inc.QOC 7.6MGNIMagnite, Inc.QOC 8.8CHRCheer Holding, Inc.QOC 7.6NCMINational CineMedia, Inc.QOC 6.6CNETZW Data Action Technologies Inc.QOC 5.2MOBQMobiquity Technologies, Inc.QOC 3.9APPAppLovin CorporationQOC 9.5QNSTQuinStreet, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: KRKR · ZD · DV · ACCS · MGNI · CHR · NCMI · CNET · MOBQ · APP · QNST

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRTO?

6 companies across all industries closest to CRTO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

BWFGBankwell Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.5NDAQNasdaq, Inc.QOC 8.5PRDOPerdoceo Education CorporationQOC 8.5SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.5IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BWFG · NDAQ · PRDO · SKYW · IDN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Criteo S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Criteo S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Criteo S.A. (CRTO)'s intrinsic value at $45.04 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.99 to $70.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $52.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRTO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.24, 8 of 11 active models suggest CRTO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $45.04, 161.3% above the current price of $17.24 — a consensus view that CRTO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Criteo S.A.'s business model in Advertising Agencies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for CRTO?

Criteo S.A.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRTO?

CirclFi analyzes CRTO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRTO?

Of the 11 models currently active on CRTO, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $70.59 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.99. CirclFi's published fair value for CRTO is the median of that range, $45.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 139% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRTO a value trap in 2026?

Criteo S.A.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Criteo S.A. (CRTO) has a median fair value of $45.04 — 161.3% above the current price of $17.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRTO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRTO valuation
  • Financial statements: Criteo S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001576427) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRTO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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