Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Fair Value 2026

GRPN · Internet Content & Information ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) trades at $19.53, versus a $11.44 median fair value across its 7 active models — 41.4% below the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.17.

Key Facts

Ticker
GRPN
Price
$19.53
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $11.44, 41.4% below the current price of $19.53. Estimates range from $6.17 to $18.93. GRPN scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GRPN’s -41.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Content & Information sector median is -13.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Groupon, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GRPN?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.17 -68.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $11.44 -41.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $18.93 -3.1%
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What Is GRPN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $6.17 to $18.93

CirclFi's 7 active models place Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) between $6.17 and $18.93 per share, a spread of 112% of the median. The median of that range — $11.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GRPN, against a current price of $19.53.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$6.17median $11.44$18.93
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$6.17
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$18.93
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GRPN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GRPN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Groupon, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.44, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $19.53. With 6 out of 7 models flagging downside (-41.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $18.93 (-3.1%), versus Bayesian DCF at $6.17 (-68.4%). This +65.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GRPN?

7 of 13 models are currently active for GRPN. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GRPN is $11.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.17 on its own, implying -68.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GRPN Rank in Internet Content & Information?

Among 78 Internet Content & Information stocks, GRPN ranks #57 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Internet Content & Information Stocks →

Within the Internet Content & Information space, Groupon, Inc. competes in an environment where gross margin profile often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GRPN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GRPN a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Groupon, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Groupon, Inc. is rated at 5.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GRPN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GRPN's 7 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Groupon, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Content & Information Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Content & Information stocks with 13-model coverage

SEATVivid Seats Inc.QOC 5.6TEADTeads Holding Co.QOC 5.6SLESuper League Enterprise, Inc.QOC 5.8LVOLiveOne, Inc.QOC 5.5STUBStubHub Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.9CRTDCreatd, Inc.QOC 5.4JOYYJOYY Inc.QOC 2.7FVRRFiverr International Ltd.QOC 8.0BMTMBright Mountain Media, Inc.QOC 6.6GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6METAMeta Platforms, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: SEAT · TEAD · SLE · LVO · STUB · CRTD · JOYY · FVRR · BMTM · GOOG · META

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GRPN?

7 companies across all industries closest to GRPN’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

ASURAsure Software, Inc.QOC 5.6BLSHBullishQOC 5.6CCAPCrescent Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 5.6ISPRIspire Technology Inc.QOC 5.6PLUTPlutus Financial Group LimitedQOC 5.6BOXLBoxlight CorporationQOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ASUR · BLSH · CCAP · ISPR · PLUT · BOXL · NVDA

Where Does GRPN Sit in CirclFi's Internet Content & Information Rankings?

GRPN is ranked against every other Internet Content & Information stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Internet Content & Information stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Groupon, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Groupon, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)'s intrinsic value at $11.44 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.17 to $18.93. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.17 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GRPN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.53, 0 of 7 active models suggest GRPN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $11.44, 41.4% below the current price of $19.53 — a consensus view that GRPN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Groupon, Inc.'s business model in Internet Content & Information.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for GRPN?

Groupon, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GRPN?

CirclFi analyzes GRPN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GRPN?

Of the 7 models currently active on GRPN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $18.93 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $6.17. CirclFi's published fair value for GRPN is the median of that range, $11.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 112% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GRPN a value trap in 2026?

Groupon, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) has a median fair value of $11.44 — 41.4% below the current price of $19.53 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GRPN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GRPN valuation
  • Financial statements: Groupon, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001490281) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GRPN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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