Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Fair Value 2026

TLYS · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) trades at $4.42, versus a $4.95 median fair value across its 7 active models — 11.9% above the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.94.

Key Facts

Ticker
TLYS
Price
$4.42
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +34.5% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $4.95, 11.9% above the current price of $4.42. Estimates range from $0.86 to $8.43. TLYS scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TLYS’s +11.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is -0.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tilly's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TLYS?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.94 +34.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.95 +11.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.86 -80.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including PWERM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$2 / day

Billed monthly ($60/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 7 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is TLYS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.86 to $8.43

CirclFi's 7 active models place Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) between $0.86 and $8.43 per share, a spread of 153% of the median. The median of that range — $4.95 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TLYS, against a current price of $4.42.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$0.86median $4.95$8.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.86
Most bullish modelPWERM$8.43
Model agreement4 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TLYS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TLYS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tilly's, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.95, suggesting a +11.9% median upside from the current price of $4.42. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $8.43 (+90.8%), versus ML-RIV at $0.86 (-80.5%). This +171.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TLYS?

7 of 13 models are currently active for TLYS. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TLYS is $4.95 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.94 on its own, implying +34.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TLYS Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 36 Apparel Retail stocks, TLYS ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Apparel Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Tilly's, Inc., metrics like customer lifetime value (CLV) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TLYS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TLYS a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Tilly's, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tilly's, Inc. scores 5.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TLYS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TLYS's 7 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tilly's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

JEM707 Cayman Holdings LimitedQOC 5.8LSEBLSEB Creative Corp.QOC 5.2AKAa.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.QOC 5.9LVLULulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.1RENTRent the Runway, Inc.QOC 6.0MYSZMy Size, Inc.QOC 5.1LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0SHOEShoe Station Group Inc.QOC 7.9BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.1ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: JEM · LSEB · AKA · LVLU · RENT · MYSZ · LULU · SHOE · BRIA · BKE · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TLYS?

7 companies across all industries closest to TLYS’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc.QOC 5.6SHIMShimmick CorporationQOC 5.6GRPNGroupon, Inc.QOC 5.6DDCDDC Enterprise LimitedQOC 5.6CRGOFreightos LimitedQOC 5.6WKHSWorkhorse Group, Inc.QOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACHC · SHIM · GRPN · DDC · CRGO · WKHS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tilly's, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tilly's, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS)'s intrinsic value at $4.95 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.86 to $8.43. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.94 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TLYS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.42, 4 of 7 active models suggest TLYS may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $4.95, 11.9% above the current price of $4.42 — a consensus view that TLYS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tilly's, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for TLYS?

Tilly's, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TLYS?

CirclFi analyzes TLYS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TLYS?

Of the 7 models currently active on TLYS, PWERM is the most bullish at $8.43 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.86. CirclFi's published fair value for TLYS is the median of that range, $4.95, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 153% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TLYS a value trap in 2026?

Tilly's, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) has a median fair value of $4.95 — 11.9% above the current price of $4.42 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TLYS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TLYS valuation
  • Financial statements: Tilly's, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001524025) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TLYS as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 7 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on TLYS.

Unlock All 7 Fair Values — $60/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for TLYS Unlock All 7 — $60/mo