lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) Fair Value 2026

LULU · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) trades at $115.00, versus a $214.85 median fair value across its 12 active models — 86.8% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $233.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
LULU
Price
$115.00
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +275.2% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $214.85, 86.8% above the current price of $115.00. Estimates range from $17.97 to $431.42. LULU scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LULU’s +86.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy lululemon athletica inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LULU?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($115.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $233.69 +103.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $215.26 +87.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $214.44 +86.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $431.42 +275.2%
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What Is LULU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $17.97 to $431.42

CirclFi's 12 active models place lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) between $17.97 and $431.42 per share, a spread of 192% of the median. The median of that range — $214.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LULU, against a current price of $115.00.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$17.97median $214.85$431.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$17.97
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$431.42
Model agreement10 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LULU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LULU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, lululemon athletica inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $214.85. At a current market price of $115.00, 10 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +86.8%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +275.2% (fair value: $431.42), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -84.4% ($17.97). The spread between these extremes — +359.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LULU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LULU. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LULU is $214.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $233.69 on its own, implying +103.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LULU Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 34 Apparel Retail stocks, LULU ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places LULU in the top tier.

The Apparel Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For lululemon athletica inc., metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LULU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LULU a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for lululemon athletica inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, lululemon athletica inc. scores 9.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +359.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LULU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LULU's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy lululemon athletica inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1BOOTBoot Barn Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9FBCDFBC Holding, Inc.QOC 3.3URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9VSXYVictorias Secret & Co.QOC 7.9CALCaleres, Inc.QOC 7.0RENTRent the Runway, Inc.QOC 5.9

Read investment analysis: ANF · BOOT · BKE · TJX · FBCD · URBN · VSXY · CAL · RENT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LULU?

7 companies across all industries closest to LULU’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

INTUIntuit Inc.QOC 9.0SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.QOC 9.0PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0AGYSAgilysys, Inc.QOC 9.0HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 9.0KAROKarooooo Ltd.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INTU · SMCI · PPC · AGYS · HG · KARO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About lululemon athletica inc.’s Valuation?

What is lululemon athletica inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts lululemon athletica inc. (LULU)'s intrinsic value at $214.85 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.97 to $431.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $233.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LULU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $115.00, 10 of 12 active models suggest LULU may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $214.85, 86.8% above the current price of $115.00 — a consensus view that LULU is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits lululemon athletica inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for LULU?

lululemon athletica inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LULU?

CirclFi analyzes LULU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LULU?

Of the 12 models currently active on LULU, First Chicago is the most bullish at $431.42 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $17.97. CirclFi's published fair value for LULU is the median of that range, $214.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 192% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LULU a value trap in 2026?

lululemon athletica inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) has a median fair value of $214.85 — 86.8% above the current price of $115.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LULU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LULU valuation
  • Financial statements: lululemon athletica inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001397187) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LULU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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