Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Fair Value 2026

URBN · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) trades at $78.79, versus a $45.54 median fair value across its 12 active models — 42.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
URBN
Price
$78.79
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +100.1% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $45.54, 42.2% below the current price of $78.79. Estimates range from $10.55 to $157.69. URBN scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. URBN’s -42.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Urban Outfitters, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give URBN?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.19 -79.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.31 -62.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $50.26 -36.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $157.69 +100.1%
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What Is URBN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.55 to $157.69

CirclFi's 12 active models place Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) between $10.55 and $157.69 per share, a spread of 323% of the median. The median of that range — $45.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for URBN, against a current price of $78.79.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$10.55median $45.54$157.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$10.55
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$157.69
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for URBN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on URBN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Urban Outfitters, Inc. at its current price of $78.79. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $45.54 (-42.2% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $157.69 (+100.1%), versus Dynamic NAV at $10.55 (-86.6%). This +186.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About URBN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for URBN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for URBN is $45.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.19 on its own, implying -79.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does URBN Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 34 Apparel Retail stocks, URBN ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places URBN in the top tier.

Within the Apparel Retail space, Urban Outfitters, Inc. competes in an environment where customer lifetime value (CLV) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is URBN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns URBN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Urban Outfitters, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Urban Outfitters, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +186.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every URBN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across URBN's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Urban Outfitters, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9IVDNInnovative Designs, Inc.QOC 8.5BOOTBoot Barn Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.QOC 8.4LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0GAPThe Gap, Inc.QOC 8.4BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.QOC 7.8CATOThe Cato CorporationQOC 6.3MYSZMy Size, Inc.QOC 5.2BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TJX · IVDN · BOOT · ROST · LULU · GAP · BURL · CATO · MYSZ · BKE · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to URBN?

7 companies across all industries closest to URBN’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

SMSM Energy CompanyQOC 8.9LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9BCPCBalchem CorporationQOC 8.9GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc.QOC 8.9HEIHEICO CorporationQOC 8.9DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SM · LDOS · BCPC · GRBK · HEI · DUOL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Urban Outfitters, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)'s intrinsic value at $45.54 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.55 to $157.69. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is URBN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.79, 5 of 12 active models suggest URBN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $45.54, 42.2% below the current price of $78.79 — a consensus view that URBN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for URBN?

Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on URBN?

CirclFi analyzes URBN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on URBN?

Of the 12 models currently active on URBN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $157.69 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $10.55. CirclFi's published fair value for URBN is the median of that range, $45.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 323% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is URBN a value trap in 2026?

Urban Outfitters, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) has a median fair value of $45.54 — 42.2% below the current price of $78.79 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/URBN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this URBN valuation
  • Financial statements: Urban Outfitters, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000912615) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for URBN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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