Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Fair Value 2026

CNM · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) trades at $43.74, versus a $41.51 median fair value across its 11 active models — 5.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.04.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNM
Price
$43.74
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +132.3% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $41.51, within 5.1% of the current price of $43.74. Estimates range from $14.98 to $101.59. CNM scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CNM’s -5.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -33.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Core & Main, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CNM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.04 -42.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.39 -58.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $41.51 -5.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $101.59 +132.3%
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What Is CNM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $14.98 to $101.59

CirclFi's 11 active models place Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) between $14.98 and $101.59 per share, a spread of 209% of the median. The median of that range — $41.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CNM, against a current price of $43.74.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$14.98median $41.51$101.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$14.98
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$101.59
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CNM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CNM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Core & Main, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $41.51, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $43.74. While the median implied return is -5.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +198.0% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $101.59 (+132.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $14.98 (-65.7%). This +198.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Core & Main, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CNM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CNM. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CNM is $41.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.04 on its own, implying -42.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNM Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 23 Industrial Distribution stocks, CNM ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places CNM in the top tier.

Core & Main, Inc.'s positioning within the Industrial Distribution segment means that order backlog depth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification tailwinds — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CNM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CNM a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Core & Main, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Core & Main, Inc. scores 8.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +198.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNM's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Core & Main, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1FASTFastenal CompanyQOC 8.9GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3WSOWatsco, Inc.QOC 8.7TXRPTX Rail Products, IncQOC 3.5GICGlobal Industrial CompanyQOC 8.4DXPEDXP Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.3TLIHTen-League International Holdings LimitedQOC 7.5XMTRXometry, Inc.QOC 6.6

Read investment analysis: AIT · FAST · GWW · WSO · TXRP · GIC · DXPE · TLIH · XMTR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CNM?

7 companies across all industries closest to CNM’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 8.9CPACCementos Pacasmayo S.A.A.QOC 8.9TDYTeledyne Technologies IncorporatedQOC 8.9BSXBoston Scientific CorporationQOC 8.9FBPFirst BanCorp.QOC 8.9KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MGY · CPAC · TDY · BSX · FBP · KEYS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Core & Main, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Core & Main, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Core & Main, Inc. (CNM)'s intrinsic value at $41.51 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.98 to $101.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.04 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.74, 5 of 11 active models suggest CNM may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $41.51, within 5.1% of the current price of $43.74 — a consensus view that CNM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Core & Main, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for CNM?

Core & Main, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNM?

CirclFi analyzes CNM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CNM?

Of the 11 models currently active on CNM, First Chicago is the most bullish at $101.59 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $14.98. CirclFi's published fair value for CNM is the median of that range, $41.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 209% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CNM a value trap in 2026?

Core & Main, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) has a median fair value of $41.51 — within 5.1% of the current price of $43.74 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CNM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CNM valuation
  • Financial statements: Core & Main, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001856525) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CNM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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