Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Fair Value 2026

XMTR · Services-Business Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) trades at $97.15, approximately 337% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $22.25. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XMTR
Price
$97.15
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($97.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$22.25 -77.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$11.94 -87.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$18.58 -80.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$11.20 -88.5%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xometry, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.90, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $97.15. With 11 out of 11 models flagging downside (-75.4% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -5.1% (fair value: $92.22), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.8% ($2.16). The spread between these extremes — +92.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About XMTR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for XMTR. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates XMTR's intrinsic value at $22.25, implying -77.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XMTR Rank in Services-Business Services, NEC?

Among 97 Services-Business Services, NEC stocks, XMTR ranks #54 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks →

Xometry, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is XMTR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XMTR a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Xometry, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Xometry, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XMTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XMTR's 11 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Xometry, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Business Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CART · EXLS · FICO · PDD · TCOM

See all Services-Business Services, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Xometry, Inc.

What is Xometry, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Xometry, Inc. (XMTR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $22.25. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XMTR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $97.15, 0 of 11 active models suggest XMTR may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Xometry, Inc.'s business model in Services-Business Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for XMTR?

Xometry, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XMTR?

CirclFi analyzes XMTR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XMTR a value trap in 2026?

Xometry, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on XMTR.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access