Figma, Inc. (FIG) Fair Value 2026

FIG · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Figma, Inc. (FIG) trades at $28.82, versus a $8.13 median fair value across its 5 active models — 71.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
FIG
Price
$28.82
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Figma, Inc. (FIG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Figma, Inc. (FIG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $8.13, 71.8% below the current price of $28.82. Estimates range from $3.74 to $10.75. FIG scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 43/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FIG’s -71.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Figma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FIG?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.74 -87.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $7.64 -73.5%
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What Is FIG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $3.74 to $10.75

CirclFi's 5 active models place Figma, Inc. (FIG) between $3.74 and $10.75 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $8.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FIG, against a current price of $28.82.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$3.74median $8.13$10.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.74
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$10.75
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FIG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Figma, Inc. (FIG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Figma, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.13. Trading at its current price of $28.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -71.8%.

What Do the Models Say About FIG?

5 of 13 models are currently active for FIG. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FIG is $8.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.74 on its own, implying -87.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FIG Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, FIG ranks #144 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Figma, Inc., metrics like annual recurring revenue (ARR) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FIG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FIG a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Figma, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Figma, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

Models cluster within a tight range (+24.3% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FIG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FIG's 5 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Figma, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

CRNCCerence Inc.QOC 6.5DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4SCORcomScore, Inc.QOC 6.5HTCRHeartCore Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.4XPERXperi Inc.QOC 6.6CREXCreative Realities, Inc.QOC 6.3IFBDInfobird Co., LtdQOC 4.8ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.QOC 9.3PLUSePlus inc.QOC 7.9ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: CRNC · DMRC · SCOR · HTCR · XPER · CREX · IFBD · ADP · PLUS · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FIG?

7 companies across all industries closest to FIG’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

AIROAIRO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5MATWMatthews International CorporationQOC 6.5MAINMain Street Capital CorporationQOC 6.5FEFirstEnergy Corp.QOC 6.5ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5RHNORhino Bitcoin Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AIRO · MATW · MAIN · FE · ULCC · RHNO · NVDA

Where Does FIG Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

FIG is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Figma, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Figma, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Figma, Inc. (FIG)'s intrinsic value at $8.13 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.74 to $10.75. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FIG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.82, 0 of 5 active models suggest FIG may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $8.13, 71.8% below the current price of $28.82 — a consensus view that FIG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Figma, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for FIG?

Figma, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FIG?

CirclFi analyzes FIG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FIG?

Of the 5 models currently active on FIG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $10.75 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.74. CirclFi's published fair value for FIG is the median of that range, $8.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FIG a value trap in 2026?

Figma, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Figma, Inc. (FIG) has a median fair value of $8.13 — 71.8% below the current price of $28.82 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FIG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FIG valuation
  • Financial statements: Figma, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001579878) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FIG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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