Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Fair Value 2026

CRNC · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) trades at $8.50, versus a $6.05 median fair value across its 7 active models — 28.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRNC
Price
$8.50
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $6.05, 28.8% below the current price of $8.50. Estimates range from $0.69 to $14.63. CRNC scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CRNC’s -28.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cerence Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRNC?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.53 -58.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.05 -28.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.54 -70.1%
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What Is CRNC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.69 to $14.63

CirclFi's 7 active models place Cerence Inc. (CRNC) between $0.69 and $14.63 per share, a spread of 230% of the median. The median of that range — $6.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRNC, against a current price of $8.50.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · FTNN
$0.69median $6.05$14.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.69
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$14.63
Model agreement3 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CRNC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRNC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cerence Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $6.05. Trading at $8.50, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.8%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $14.63 (+72.1%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $0.69 (-91.9%). This +164.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cerence Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CRNC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for CRNC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CRNC is $6.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.53 on its own, implying -58.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRNC Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, CRNC ranks #143 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Cerence Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CRNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRNC a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Cerence Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Cerence Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRNC's 7 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cerence Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

SCORcomScore, Inc.QOC 6.5FIGFigma, Inc.QOC 6.5XPERXperi Inc.QOC 6.6DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4DOMODomo, Inc.QOC 6.6HTCRHeartCore Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.4SRCOSparta Commercial Services, Inc.QOC 4.8ADBEAdobe Inc.QOC 9.4CRMZCreditRiskMonitor.com, Inc.QOC 7.9ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: SCOR · FIG · XPER · DMRC · DOMO · HTCR · SRCO · ADBE · CRMZ · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRNC?

7 companies across all industries closest to CRNC’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

XOSXos, Inc.QOC 6.5WYYWidePoint CorporationQOC 6.5TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.QOC 6.5ZVRAZevra Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.5AVTRAvantor, Inc.QOC 6.5ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: XOS · WYY · TMCI · ZVRA · AVTR · ULCC · NVDA

Where Does CRNC Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

CRNC is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cerence Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cerence Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cerence Inc. (CRNC)'s intrinsic value at $6.05 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.69 to $14.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.50, 3 of 7 active models suggest CRNC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $6.05, 28.8% below the current price of $8.50 — a consensus view that CRNC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cerence Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for CRNC?

Cerence Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRNC?

CirclFi analyzes CRNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRNC?

Of the 7 models currently active on CRNC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $14.63 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.69. CirclFi's published fair value for CRNC is the median of that range, $6.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 230% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRNC a value trap in 2026?

Cerence Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) has a median fair value of $6.05 — 28.8% below the current price of $8.50 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRNC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRNC valuation
  • Financial statements: Cerence Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001768267) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRNC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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