QXO, Inc. (QXO) Fair Value 2026

QXO · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (50/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, QXO, Inc. (QXO) trades at $13.86, versus a $17.25 median fair value across its 5 active models — 24.5% above the current price. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 50/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
QXO
Price
$13.86
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
50/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +51.9% upside with 49% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 50 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is QXO, Inc. (QXO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, QXO, Inc. (QXO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $17.25, 24.5% above the current price of $13.86. Estimates range from $0.20 to $23.46. QXO scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 50/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. QXO’s +24.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -33.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy QXO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QXO?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.25 +24.5%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $21.05 +51.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is QXO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.20 to $23.46

CirclFi's 5 active models place QXO, Inc. (QXO) between $0.20 and $23.46 per share, a spread of 135% of the median. The median of that range — $17.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QXO, against a current price of $13.86.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$0.20median $17.25$23.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.20
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$23.46
Model agreement4 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for QXO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QXO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is QXO, Inc. (QXO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, QXO, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $13.86. Based on our 13-model framework, QXO, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $17.25 — representing +24.5% implied upside — with 4 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $23.46 (+69.3%), versus ML-RIV at $0.20 (-98.6%). This +167.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About QXO?

5 of 13 models are currently active for QXO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for QXO is $17.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QXO Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 23 Industrial Distribution stocks, QXO ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Industrial Distribution sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial enterprise businesses. For QXO, Inc., metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is QXO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QXO a score of 50/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for QXO, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, QXO, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +167.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QXO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QXO's 5 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy QXO, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

WXMWF International LimitedQOC 6.2TXRPTX Rail Products, IncQOC 3.5XMTRXometry, Inc.QOC 6.6GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 6.7AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1FASTFastenal CompanyQOC 8.9POOLPool CorporationQOC 8.1BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4

Read investment analysis: WXM · TXRP · XMTR · GWW · DSGR · AIT · FAST · POOL · BXC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QXO?

7 companies across all industries closest to QXO’s Quality of Company score of 5.9/10.

NMAXNewsmax, Inc.QOC 5.9SLNSilence Therapeutics plcQOC 5.9NTSKNetskope, Inc.QOC 5.9TDICDreamland LimitedQOC 5.9SIShoulder Innovations, Inc.QOC 5.9NEGGNewegg Commerce, Inc.QOC 5.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NMAX · SLN · NTSK · TDIC · SI · NEGG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About QXO, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is QXO, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts QXO, Inc. (QXO)'s intrinsic value at $17.25 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.20 to $23.46. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QXO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.86, 4 of 5 active models suggest QXO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $17.25, 24.5% above the current price of $13.86 — a consensus view that QXO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits QXO, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for QXO?

QXO, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QXO?

CirclFi analyzes QXO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QXO?

Of the 5 models currently active on QXO, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $23.46 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.20. CirclFi's published fair value for QXO is the median of that range, $17.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 135% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QXO a value trap in 2026?

QXO, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 50/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, QXO, Inc. (QXO) has a median fair value of $17.25 — 24.5% above the current price of $13.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QXO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QXO valuation
  • Financial statements: QXO, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001236275) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for QXO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on QXO.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for QXO Unlock All 5 — $39/mo