Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Fair Value 2026

AIT · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) trades at $329.47, approximately 72% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $191.71. QOC: 9.5/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AIT
Price
$329.47
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +32.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($329.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$191.71 -41.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$64.39 -80.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$169.47 -48.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$436.48 +32.5%

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What Is Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Applied Industrial Technologies's intrinsic value is estimated at $192.34. Trading at its current price of $329.47, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -41.6%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $436.48 (+32.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $16.92 (-94.9%). This +127.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Applied Industrial Technologies's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AIT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for AIT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AIT's intrinsic value at $191.71, implying -41.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AIT Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 1 Industrial Distribution stocks, AIT ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places AIT in the top tier.

The Industrial Distribution sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Applied Industrial Technologies, metrics like aftermarket revenue mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AIT a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AIT. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Applied Industrial Technologies. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Applied Industrial Technologies earns a quality score of 9.5/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AIT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AIT's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Applied Industrial Technologies Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Frequently Asked Questions About Applied Industrial Technologies

What is Applied Industrial Technologies's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $191.71. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AIT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $329.47, 1 of 13 active models suggest AIT may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Applied Industrial Technologies's business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for AIT?

Applied Industrial Technologies's QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AIT?

CirclFi analyzes AIT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AIT a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AIT at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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