Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) Fair Value 2026

DSGR · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) trades at $34.83, versus a $27.73 median fair value across its 9 active models — 20.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DSGR
Price
$34.83
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +117.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $27.73, 20.4% below the current price of $34.83. Estimates range from $1.95 to $75.77. DSGR scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DSGR’s -20.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -33.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DSGR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $27.73 -20.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $75.77 +117.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.86 -83.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.95 -94.4%
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What Is DSGR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.95 to $75.77

CirclFi's 9 active models place Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) between $1.95 and $75.77 per share, a spread of 266% of the median. The median of that range — $27.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DSGR, against a current price of $34.83.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$1.95median $27.73$75.77
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.95
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$75.77
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DSGR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DSGR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $27.73. Trading at $34.83, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -20.4%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +117.5% (fair value: $75.77), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -94.4% ($1.95). The spread between these extremes — +212.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DSGR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for DSGR. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DSGR is $27.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DSGR Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 23 Industrial Distribution stocks, DSGR ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

The Industrial Distribution sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DSGR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DSGR a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. scores 6.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +212.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DSGR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DSGR's 9 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

DNOWDNOW Inc.QOC 7.1XMTRXometry, Inc.QOC 6.6TITNTitan Machinery Inc.QOC 7.3WXMWF International LimitedQOC 6.2BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4QXOQXO, Inc.QOC 5.9GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3WCCWESCO International, Inc.QOC 8.3REZIResideo Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: DNOW · XMTR · TITN · WXM · BXC · QXO · GWW · WCC · REZI · AIT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DSGR?

7 companies across all industries closest to DSGR’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7SVCOSilvaco Group, Inc.QOC 6.7XGNExagen Inc.QOC 6.7FENCFennec Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.7ALKTAlkami Technology, Inc.QOC 6.7BODIThe Beachbody Company, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RCUS · SVCO · XGN · FENC · ALKT · BODI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR)'s intrinsic value at $27.73 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.95 to $75.77. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.83, 3 of 9 active models suggest DSGR may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $27.73, 20.4% below the current price of $34.83 — a consensus view that DSGR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.'s business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for DSGR?

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DSGR?

CirclFi analyzes DSGR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DSGR?

Of the 9 models currently active on DSGR, First Chicago is the most bullish at $75.77 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.95. CirclFi's published fair value for DSGR is the median of that range, $27.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 266% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DSGR a value trap in 2026?

Distribution Solutions Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR) has a median fair value of $27.73 — 20.4% below the current price of $34.83 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DSGR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DSGR valuation
  • Financial statements: Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000703604) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DSGR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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