Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Fair Value 2026

DSGR · Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (49/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) trades at $27.73, approximately 2889% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.93. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 49/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DSGR
Price
$27.73
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
49/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +71.4% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 49 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$0.93 -96.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$0.84 -97.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$13.19 -52.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$47.53 +71.4%

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What Is Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Distribution Solutions Group, I's intrinsic value is estimated at $13.98. Trading at its current price of $27.73, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -49.6%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +71.4% (fair value: $47.53), while EPV is the most conservative at -97.0% ($0.84). The spread between these extremes — +168.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DSGR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for DSGR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DSGR's intrinsic value at $0.93, implying -96.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DSGR Rank in Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies?

Among 5 Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies stocks, DSGR ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Distribution Solutions Group, I, metrics like organic revenue growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DSGR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DSGR a score of 49/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Distribution Solutions Group, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Distribution Solutions Group, I scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DSGR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DSGR's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Distribution Solutions Group, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HDSN · WLFC · ASLE · TLIH

Frequently Asked Questions About Distribution Solutions Group, I

What is Distribution Solutions Group, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Distribution Solutions Group, I (DSGR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.93. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DSGR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.73, 2 of 12 active models suggest DSGR may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Distribution Solutions Group, I's business model in Wholesale-Machinery, Equipment & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for DSGR?

Distribution Solutions Group, I's QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DSGR?

CirclFi analyzes DSGR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DSGR a value trap in 2026?

Distribution Solutions Group, I's Value Trap score is 49/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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