Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Fair Value 2026

ALKT · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (53/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) trades at $20.22, versus a $11.32 median fair value across its 5 active models — 44.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 53/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALKT
Price
$20.22
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
53/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 53 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.32, 44.0% below the current price of $20.22. Estimates range from $2.78 to $32.82. ALKT scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 53/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ALKT’s -44.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alkami Technology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALKT?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.69 -52.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.32 -44.0%
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What Is ALKT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $2.78 to $32.82

CirclFi's 5 active models place Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) between $2.78 and $32.82 per share, a spread of 265% of the median. The median of that range — $11.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALKT, against a current price of $20.22.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.78median $11.32$32.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.78
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.82
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALKT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALKT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alkami Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.32. Trading at its current price of $20.22, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -44.0%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $32.82 (+62.3%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $2.78 (-86.3%). This +148.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alkami Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALKT?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ALKT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALKT is $11.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.69 on its own, implying -52.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALKT Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, ALKT ranks #134 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Alkami Technology, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that net revenue retention (NRR) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALKT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALKT a score of 53/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Alkami Technology, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alkami Technology, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALKT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALKT's 5 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alkami Technology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

KCKingsoft Cloud Holdings LimitedQOC 6.7INLXIntellinetics, Inc.QOC 6.7DSNYDestiny Media Technologies Inc.QOC 6.7SVCOSilvaco Group, Inc.QOC 6.7THRYThryv Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7APPSDigital Turbine, Inc.QOC 6.6PSQHPSQ Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8NATLNCR Atleos CorporationQOC 8.1ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: KC · INLX · DSNY · SVCO · THRY · APPS · PSQH · PTC · NATL · ADSK

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALKT?

6 companies across all industries closest to ALKT’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

CRNXCrinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.7XGNExagen Inc.QOC 6.7BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 6.7RCUSArcus Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRNX · XGN · BXMT · RCUS · DSGR · NVDA

Where Does ALKT Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

ALKT is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alkami Technology, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alkami Technology, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT)'s intrinsic value at $11.32 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.78 to $32.82. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALKT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.22, 1 of 5 active models suggest ALKT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.32, 44.0% below the current price of $20.22 — a consensus view that ALKT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alkami Technology, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for ALKT?

Alkami Technology, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALKT?

CirclFi analyzes ALKT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALKT?

Of the 5 models currently active on ALKT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.82 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.78. CirclFi's published fair value for ALKT is the median of that range, $11.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 265% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALKT a value trap in 2026?

Alkami Technology, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 53/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Alkami Technology, Inc. (ALKT) has a median fair value of $11.32 — 44.0% below the current price of $20.22 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALKT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALKT valuation
  • Financial statements: Alkami Technology, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001529274) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALKT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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