Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Fair Value 2026

SPCE · Transportation Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) trades at $2.72, approximately 3563% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.07. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPCE
Price
$2.72
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +1.1% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $2.75, within 1.1% of the current price of $2.72. Estimates range from $0.07 to $4.40. SPCE scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.07 -97.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.75 +1.1%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $2.72. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $2.59 (-4.9% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 1 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $4.40 (+61.9%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.07 (-97.3%). This +159.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SPCE?

5 of 13 models are currently active for SPCE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SPCE's intrinsic value at $0.07, implying -97.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPCE Rank in Transportation Services?

Among 18 Transportation Services stocks, SPCE ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a transportation company, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where EV mix percentage is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SPCE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SPCE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPCE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +159.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPCE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPCE's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Transportation Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Transportation Services stocks with 13-model coverage

EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.5TOURTuniu CorporationQOC 9.0BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 8.8VRRMVerra Mobility CorporationQOC 8.8GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.6HAFNHafnia LimitedQOC 8.5BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. Common StQOC 8.3GXOGXO Logistics, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: EXPE · TOUR · BWLP · VRRM · GATX

Frequently Asked Questions About Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.

What is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.07. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPCE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.72, 3 of 5 active models suggest SPCE may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $2.75, within 1.1% of the current price of $2.72 — a consensus view that SPCE is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Transportation Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for SPCE?

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPCE?

CirclFi analyzes SPCE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SPCE a value trap in 2026?

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) has a median fair value of $2.75 — within 1.1% of the current price of $2.72 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPCE/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on SPCE.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access