Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Fair Value 2026

SPCE · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) trades at $2.94, versus a $2.79 median fair value across its 3 active models — 5.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPCE
Price
$2.94
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +51.4% upside with 31% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $2.79, within 5.1% of the current price of $2.94. Estimates range from $1.02 to $4.45. SPCE scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SPCE’s -5.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -32.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPCE?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.02 -65.1%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.79 -5.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $4.45 +51.4%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is SPCE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $1.02 to $4.45

CirclFi's 3 active models place Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) between $1.02 and $4.45 per share, a spread of 123% of the median. The median of that range — $2.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPCE, against a current price of $2.94.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$1.02median $2.79$4.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.02
Most bullish modelPWERM$4.45
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPCE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPCE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. at its current price of $2.94. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $2.79 (-5.1% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $4.45 (+51.4%), versus ML-RIV at $1.02 (-65.1%). This +116.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SPCE?

3 of 13 models are currently active for SPCE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPCE is $2.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPCE Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, SPCE ranks #50 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

As a aerospace company, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where aftermarket revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SPCE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SPCE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPCE a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPCE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPCE's 3 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

POWWOutdoor Holding CompanyQOC 6.5PLPlanet Labs PBCQOC 6.4CVUCPI Aerostructures, Inc.QOC 6.5PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4RCATRed Cat Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.QOC 6.3HLEOHelio CorporationQOC 4.8CWCurtiss-Wright CorporationQOC 9.2SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: POWW · PL · CVU · PEW · RCAT · FLY · HLEO · CW · SWBI · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPCE?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPCE’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

WRAPWrap Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.5TAPMolson Coors Beverage CompanyQOC 6.5RXSTRxSight, Inc.QOC 6.5CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5TCITranscontinental Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.5KRMDKORU Medical Systems, Inc.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WRAP · TAP · RXST · CLNE · TCI · KRMD · NVDA

Where Does SPCE Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

SPCE is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE)'s intrinsic value at $2.79 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.02 to $4.45. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPCE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.94, 1 of 3 active models suggest SPCE may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $2.79, within 5.1% of the current price of $2.94 — a consensus view that SPCE is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for SPCE?

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPCE?

CirclFi analyzes SPCE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPCE?

Of the 3 models currently active on SPCE, PWERM is the most bullish at $4.45 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.02. CirclFi's published fair value for SPCE is the median of that range, $2.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 123% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPCE a value trap in 2026?

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) has a median fair value of $2.79 — within 5.1% of the current price of $2.94 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPCE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPCE valuation
  • Financial statements: Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001706946) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPCE as of ; valuations recomputed .