Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Fair Value 2026

WBD · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) trades at $28.77, versus a $15.07 median fair value across its 9 active models — 47.6% below the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.81.

Key Facts

Ticker
WBD
Price
$28.77
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +88.7% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $15.07, 47.6% below the current price of $28.77. Estimates range from $0.55 to $54.28. WBD scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. WBD’s -47.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -28.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WBD?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.81 -62.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.61 -42.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $54.28 +88.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.07 -47.6%
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What Is WBD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.55 to $54.28

CirclFi's 9 active models place Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) between $0.55 and $54.28 per share, a spread of 357% of the median. The median of that range — $15.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WBD, against a current price of $28.77.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$0.55median $15.07$54.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.55
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$54.28
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WBD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WBD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.07, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $28.77. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-47.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $54.28 (+88.7%), versus Markov DDM at $0.55 (-98.1%). This +186.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About WBD?

9 of 13 models are currently active for WBD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WBD is $15.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.81 on its own, implying -62.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WBD Rank in Entertainment?

Among 53 Entertainment stocks, WBD ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Entertainment Stocks →

As a media and communications company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. operates in a sector where content cost ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating WBD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is WBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WBD a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. is rated at 6.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +186.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WBD's 9 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

GAIAGaia, Inc.QOC 6.7PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.5MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1HUYAHUYA Inc.QOC 6.5AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding CorporationQOC 7.2CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4GFMHGoliath Film and Media HoldingsQOC 5.5NIPGNIP Group Inc.QOC 2.3LFSLeifras Co., Ltd.QOC 8.1NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: GAIA · PLAY · MCS · HUYA · AENT · CNK · GFMH · NIPG · LFS · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WBD?

7 companies across all industries closest to WBD’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

WVEWave Life Sciences, Inc.QOC 6.6NPCENeuroPace, Inc.QOC 6.6RNWReNew Energy Global PlcQOC 6.6EOSEEos Energy Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.6BMTMBright Mountain Media, Inc.QOC 6.6QTRXQuanterix CorporationQOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WVE · NPCE · RNW · EOSE · BMTM · QTRX · NVDA

Where Does WBD Sit in CirclFi's Entertainment Rankings?

WBD is ranked against every other Entertainment stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Entertainment stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD)'s intrinsic value at $15.07 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.55 to $54.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.81 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.77, 1 of 9 active models suggest WBD may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $15.07, 47.6% below the current price of $28.77 — a consensus view that WBD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for WBD?

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WBD?

CirclFi analyzes WBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WBD?

Of the 9 models currently active on WBD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $54.28 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.55. CirclFi's published fair value for WBD is the median of that range, $15.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 357% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WBD a value trap in 2026?

Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD) has a median fair value of $15.07 — 47.6% below the current price of $28.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WBD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WBD valuation
  • Financial statements: Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001437107) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WBD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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