Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Fair Value 2026

NFLX · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) trades at $79.84, versus a $32.34 median fair value across its 9 active models — 59.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
NFLX
Price
$79.84
Quality Score
9.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.8/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $32.34, 59.5% below the current price of $79.84. Estimates range from $17.30 to $64.97. NFLX scores 9.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NFLX’s -59.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Netflix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NFLX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.42 -68.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.30 -78.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $32.34 -59.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $59.53 -25.4%
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What Is NFLX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $17.30 to $64.97

CirclFi's 9 active models place Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) between $17.30 and $64.97 per share, a spread of 147% of the median. The median of that range — $32.34 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NFLX, against a current price of $79.84.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$17.30median $32.34$64.97
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$17.30
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$64.97
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NFLX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NFLX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $32.34. Trading at its current price of $79.84, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -59.5%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $64.97 (-18.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $17.30 (-78.3%). This +59.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NFLX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NFLX. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NFLX is $32.34 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.42 on its own, implying -68.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NFLX Rank in Entertainment?

Among 53 Entertainment stocks, NFLX ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.8 places NFLX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Entertainment Stocks →

Netflix, Inc.'s positioning within the Entertainment segment means that capital intensity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including spectrum monetization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NFLX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NFLX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Netflix, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Netflix, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.8/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +59.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NFLX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NFLX's 9 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Netflix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

ZNBZeta Network GroupQOC 1.7IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0CPOPPop Culture Group Co., LtdQOC 2.2FOXAFox CorporationQOC 8.5VYREVyre NetworkQOC 2.2FOXFox CorporationQOC 8.5VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: ZNB · IMAX · CPOP · FOXA · VYRE · FOX · VSNT · CNK · AMC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NFLX?

7 companies across all industries closest to NFLX’s Quality of Company score of 9.8/10.

FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8ANETArista Networks, Inc.QOC 9.8KLACKLA CorporationQOC 9.8IRMDIRADIMED CORPORATIONQOC 9.8ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FUTU · ANET · KLAC · IRMD · ADSK · AVGO · NVDA

Where Does NFLX Sit in CirclFi's Entertainment Rankings?

NFLX is ranked against every other Entertainment stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Entertainment stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Netflix, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)'s intrinsic value at $32.34 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.30 to $64.97. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.84, 0 of 9 active models suggest NFLX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $32.34, 59.5% below the current price of $79.84 — a consensus view that NFLX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Netflix, Inc.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.8 mean for NFLX?

Netflix, Inc.'s QOC of 9.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NFLX?

CirclFi analyzes NFLX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NFLX?

Of the 9 models currently active on NFLX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $64.97 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $17.30. CirclFi's published fair value for NFLX is the median of that range, $32.34, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 147% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NFLX a value trap in 2026?

Netflix, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has a median fair value of $32.34 — 59.5% below the current price of $79.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NFLX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NFLX valuation
  • Financial statements: Netflix, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001065280) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NFLX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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