Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Fair Value 2026

NFLX · Services-Video Tape Rental ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) trades at $73.83, approximately 760% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.58. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NFLX
Price
$73.83
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +12.8% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($73.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $8.58 -88.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $10.19 -86.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $37.84 -48.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $83.25 +12.8%

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What Is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $51.91. Trading at its current price of $73.83, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -29.7%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $155.03 (+110.0%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $8.58 (-88.4%). This +198.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NFLX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NFLX. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NFLX's intrinsic value at $8.58, implying -88.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NFLX Rank in Services-Video Tape Rental?

Among 3 Services-Video Tape Rental stocks, NFLX ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places NFLX in the top tier.

Netflix, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NFLX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NFLX a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Netflix, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Netflix, Inc. earns a quality score of 10.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +198.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NFLX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NFLX's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Netflix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Video Tape Rental Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Services-Video Tape Rental stocks with 13-model coverage

IQiQIYI, Inc.QOC 7.9CNVSCineverse Corp.QOC 6.1

Read investment analysis: IQ · CNVS

Frequently Asked Questions About Netflix, Inc.

What is Netflix, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.58. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $73.83, 3 of 12 active models suggest NFLX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Netflix, Inc.'s business model in Services-Video Tape Rental.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for NFLX?

Netflix, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NFLX?

CirclFi analyzes NFLX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NFLX a value trap in 2026?

Netflix, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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