Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) Fair Value 2026

MPU · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) trades at $2.75. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MPU
Price
$2.75
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +92.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MPU?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $5.30 +92.6%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mega Matrix Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $2.75. Based on our 13-model framework, Mega Matrix Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.30 — representing +92.6% implied upside — with 1 out of 1 active models confirming this thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MPU?

1 of 13 models are currently active for MPU. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MPU Rank in Entertainment?

Among 50 Entertainment stocks, MPU ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Mega Matrix Inc.'s positioning within the Entertainment segment means that average revenue per user (ARPU) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including spectrum monetization — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MPU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MPU a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Mega Matrix Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mega Matrix Inc. scores 5.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MPU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MPU's 1 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mega Matrix Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

GFMHGoliath Film and Media HoldingsQOC 5.5RDIBReading International, Inc.QOC 5.4BOTYLingerie Fighting Championships, Inc.QOC 5.5AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.3RDIReading International, Inc.QOC 5.5ANGHAnghami Inc.QOC 5.3ZNBZeta Network GroupQOC 1.9WMGWarner Music Group Corp.QOC 7.9PLAYDave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.5NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: GFMH · RDIB · BOTY · AMC · RDI · ANGH · ZNB · WMG · PLAY · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MPU?

7 companies across all industries closest to MPU’s Quality of Company score of 5.4/10.

RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.QOC 5.4AGIGAbundia Global Impact Group IncQOC 5.4NWTGNewton Golf Company, Inc.QOC 5.4SMSISmith Micro Software, Inc.QOC 5.4ONEIOneMeta Inc.QOC 5.4SCNDScientific Industries, Inc.QOC 5.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RVMD · AGIG · NWTG · SMSI · ONEI · SCND · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mega Matrix Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mega Matrix Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU). The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MPU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.75, 1 of 1 active models suggest MPU may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mega Matrix Inc.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for MPU?

Mega Matrix Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MPU?

CirclFi analyzes MPU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MPU a value trap in 2026?

Mega Matrix Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Mega Matrix Inc. (MPU) a Quality of Company score of 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MPU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MPU valuation
  • Financial statements: Mega Matrix Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001953021) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MPU as of ; valuations recomputed .