Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) Fair Value 2026

SMSI · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) trades at $2.91, versus a $11.61 median fair value across its 2 active models — 299.0% above the current price. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMSI
Price
$2.91
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +377.4% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $11.61, 299.0% above the current price of $2.91. Estimates range from $9.33 to $13.89. SMSI scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SMSI’s +299.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Smith Micro Software, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SMSI?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $13.89 +377.4%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $9.33 +220.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.61. At a current market price of $2.91, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +299.0%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +377.4% (fair value: $13.89), while FTNN is the most conservative at +220.6% ($9.33). The spread between these extremes — +156.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SMSI?

2 of 13 models are currently active for SMSI. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SMSI is $11.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMSI Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, SMSI ranks #184 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s positioning within the Software - Application segment means that free cash flow margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform stickiness — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SMSI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SMSI a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Smith Micro Software, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Smith Micro Software, Inc. earns a quality score of 5.4/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +156.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMSI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMSI's 2 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Smith Micro Software, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ONEIOneMeta Inc.QOC 5.4SBIGSpringBig Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4PLTSPlatinum Analytics Cayman LimitedQOC 5.5ANKMANKAM INC.QOC 5.4ATHRAether Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.5CXAICXApp Inc.QOC 5.3MNDOMIND C.T.I. LtdQOC 2.9IDNIntellicheck, Inc.QOC 8.5HKDAMTD Digital Inc.QOC 7.0ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ONEI · SBIG · PLTS · ANKM · ATHR · CXAI · MNDO · IDN · HKD · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SMSI?

7 companies across all industries closest to SMSI’s Quality of Company score of 5.4/10.

PNBKPatriot National Bancorp, Inc.QOC 5.4HYFTMindWalk Holdings Corp.QOC 5.4PRSIPortsmouth Square, Inc.QOC 5.4RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.QOC 5.4SCNDScientific Industries, Inc.QOC 5.4PPTAPerpetua Resources Corp.QOC 5.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PNBK · HYFT · PRSI · RVMD · SCND · PPTA · NVDA

Where Does SMSI Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

SMSI is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Smith Micro Software, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI)'s intrinsic value at $11.61 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.33 to $13.89. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMSI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.91, 2 of 2 active models suggest SMSI may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $11.61, 299.0% above the current price of $2.91 — a consensus view that SMSI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for SMSI?

Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMSI?

CirclFi analyzes SMSI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SMSI a value trap in 2026?

Smith Micro Software, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Smith Micro Software, Inc. (SMSI) has a median fair value of $11.61 — 299.0% above the current price of $2.91 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SMSI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SMSI valuation
  • Financial statements: Smith Micro Software, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000948708) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SMSI as of ; valuations recomputed .