Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) Fair Value 2026

NVNI · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) trades at $1.04, versus a $5.08 median fair value across its 4 active models — 388.1% above the current price. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.71.

Key Facts

Ticker
NVNI
Price
$1.04
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +439.9% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $5.08, 388.1% above the current price of $1.04. Estimates range from $3.71 to $5.80. NVNI scores 5.5/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NVNI’s +388.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -23.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nvni Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NVNI?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.71 +256.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $5.62 +439.9%
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What Is NVNI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $3.71 to $5.80

CirclFi's 4 active models place Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) between $3.71 and $5.80 per share, a spread of 41% of the median. The median of that range — $5.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NVNI, against a current price of $1.04.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$3.71median $5.08$5.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$3.71
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$5.80
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NVNI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Nvni Group Limited. Trading at $1.04 against an estimated intrinsic value of $5.08, 4 of 4 active models flag meaningful upside of +388.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $5.80 (+457.3%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.71 (+256.8%). This +200.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nvni Group Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NVNI?

4 of 13 models are currently active for NVNI. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NVNI is $5.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.71 on its own, implying +256.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NVNI Rank in Software - Application?

Among 256 Software - Application stocks, NVNI ranks #173 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

As a technology sector, Nvni Group Limited operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NVNI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NVNI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NVNI a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Nvni Group Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Nvni Group Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 5.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +200.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NVNI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NVNI's 4 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nvni Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

ASURAsure Software, Inc.QOC 5.6INUVInuvo, Inc.QOC 5.5GLOOGloo Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6ATHRAether Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.5USDWUSDWQOC 5.7PLTSPlatinum Analytics Cayman LimitedQOC 5.5SECZSecuritize Corp.QOC 3.3GTMZoomInfo Technologies Inc.QOC 8.6KLTRKaltura, Inc.QOC 7.1ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.8PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: ASUR · INUV · GLOO · ATHR · USDW · PLTS · SECZ · GTM · KLTR · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NVNI?

7 companies across all industries closest to NVNI’s Quality of Company score of 5.5/10.

ENVXEnovix CorporationQOC 5.5ADXNAddex Therapeutics LtdQOC 5.5BARKBARK, Inc.QOC 5.5TLYSTilly's, Inc.QOC 5.5PCVXVaxcyte, Inc.QOC 5.5SKYXSKYX Platforms Corp.QOC 5.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ENVX · ADXN · BARK · TLYS · PCVX · SKYX · NVDA

Where Does NVNI Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

NVNI is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nvni Group Limited’s Valuation?

What is Nvni Group Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nvni Group Limited (NVNI)'s intrinsic value at $5.08 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.71 to $5.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.71 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NVNI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.04, 4 of 4 active models suggest NVNI may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $5.08, 388.1% above the current price of $1.04 — a consensus view that NVNI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nvni Group Limited's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for NVNI?

Nvni Group Limited's QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NVNI?

CirclFi analyzes NVNI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NVNI?

Of the 4 models currently active on NVNI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $5.80 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $3.71. CirclFi's published fair value for NVNI is the median of that range, $5.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 41% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NVNI a value trap in 2026?

Nvni Group Limited's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Nvni Group Limited (NVNI) has a median fair value of $5.08 — 388.1% above the current price of $1.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NVNI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NVNI valuation
  • Financial statements: Nvni Group Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001965143) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NVNI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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