Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) Fair Value 2026

ATRA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) trades at $9.25, versus a $25.39 median fair value across its 7 active models — 174.5% above the current price. QOC: 5.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $29.11.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATRA
Price
$9.25
Quality Score
5.4/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +320.7% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $25.39, 174.5% above the current price of $9.25. Estimates range from $6.09 to $46.46. ATRA scores 5.4/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ATRA’s +174.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATRA?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $29.11 +214.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $25.39 +174.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $38.91 +320.7%
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What Is ATRA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $6.09 to $46.46

CirclFi's 7 active models place Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) between $6.09 and $46.46 per share, a spread of 159% of the median. The median of that range — $25.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATRA, against a current price of $9.25.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · RCMH-DCF
$6.09median $25.39$46.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$6.09
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$46.46
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATRA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATRA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $25.39, suggesting a +174.5% median upside from the current price of $9.25. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $46.46 (+402.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $6.09 (-34.2%). This +436.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ATRA?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ATRA. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ATRA is $25.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $29.11 on its own, implying +214.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATRA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, ATRA ranks #231 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc., metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ATRA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATRA a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. scores 5.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +436.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATRA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATRA's 7 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

HELPCybin D/B/A Helus PharmaQOC 5.4PRMEPrime Medicine, Inc.QOC 5.4IMUXImmunic, Inc.QOC 5.4SGPSpyGlass Pharma, Inc.QOC 5.4RVMDRevolution Medicines, Inc.QOC 5.4IMMPImmutep LimitedQOC 5.4VANIVivani Medical, Inc.QOC 4.7TPSTTempest Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 3.9ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 6.6EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: HELP · PRME · IMUX · SGP · RVMD · IMMP · VANI · TPST · ABCL · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATRA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATRA’s Quality of Company score of 5.4/10.

EONREON Resources Inc.QOC 5.4KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4UPXIUpexi, Inc.QOC 5.4KLXEKLX Energy Services Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.4PDMPiedmont Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 5.4RGTIRigetti Computing, Inc.QOC 5.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EONR · KPLT · UPXI · KLXE · PDM · RGTI · NVDA

Where Does ATRA Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ATRA is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA)'s intrinsic value at $25.39 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.09 to $46.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $29.11 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATRA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.25, 5 of 7 active models suggest ATRA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $25.39, 174.5% above the current price of $9.25 — a consensus view that ATRA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.4 mean for ATRA?

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 5.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATRA?

CirclFi analyzes ATRA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATRA?

Of the 7 models currently active on ATRA, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $46.46 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $6.09. CirclFi's published fair value for ATRA is the median of that range, $25.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 159% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATRA a value trap in 2026?

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) has a median fair value of $25.39 — 174.5% above the current price of $9.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATRA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATRA valuation
  • Financial statements: Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001604464) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATRA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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