Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) Fair Value 2026

ATRA · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) trades at $8.67, approximately 228% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.64. QOC: 4.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATRA
Price
$8.67
Quality Score
4.4/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +473.4% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$2.64 -69.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$49.72 +473.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$6.60 -23.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$14.62 +68.6%

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What Is Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.25, suggesting a +64.4% average upside from the current price of $8.67. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 5 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: EPV targets $49.72 (+473.4%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $1.38 (-84.1%). This +557.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ATRA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ATRA. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ATRA's intrinsic value at $2.64, implying -69.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATRA Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, ATRA ranks #105 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ATRA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATRA a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. scores 4.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +557.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATRA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATRA's 12 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.

What is Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ATRA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.64. The Quality of Company score is 4.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATRA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.67, 7 of 12 active models suggest ATRA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.4 mean for ATRA?

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 4.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATRA?

CirclFi analyzes ATRA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ATRA a value trap in 2026?

Atara Biotherapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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