Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Fair Value 2026

NBIX · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) trades at $155.92, versus a $166.36 median fair value across its 9 active models — 6.7% above the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $340.25.

Key Facts

Ticker
NBIX
Price
$155.92
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +118.2% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $166.36, within 6.7% of the current price of $155.92. Estimates range from $83.58 to $340.25. NBIX scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NBIX’s +6.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -1.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NBIX?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($155.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $340.25 +118.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $166.36 +6.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $124.38 -20.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $99.47 -36.2%
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What Is NBIX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $83.58 to $340.25

CirclFi's 9 active models place Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) between $83.58 and $340.25 per share, a spread of 154% of the median. The median of that range — $166.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NBIX, against a current price of $155.92.

Low · FTNNHigh · Bayesian DCF
$83.58median $166.36$340.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$83.58
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$340.25
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NBIX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NBIX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $166.36, suggesting a +6.7% median upside from the current price of $155.92. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $340.25 (+118.2%), versus FTNN at $83.58 (-46.4%). This +164.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About NBIX?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NBIX. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NBIX is $166.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $340.25 on its own, implying +118.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NBIX Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, NBIX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places NBIX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. operates in a sector where patent cliff exposure is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NBIX should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NBIX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NBIX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.1/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +164.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NBIX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NBIX's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3ANIPANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.0ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 9.3ELTPElite Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.8AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LimitedQOC 8.8TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedQOC 7.0TLRYTilray Brands, Inc.QOC 5.9PNXPPineapple Express Cannabis CompanyQOC 4.7UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: LNTH · ANIP · ZTS · ELTP · AMPH · RDY · TAK · TLRY · PNXP · UTHR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NBIX?

7 companies across all industries closest to NBIX’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedQOC 9.2ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.QOC 9.2UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TSM · IT · BKE · TGLS · SPOT · UBER · NVDA

Where Does NBIX Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

NBIX is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)'s intrinsic value at $166.36 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $83.58 to $340.25. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $340.25 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NBIX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $155.92, 5 of 9 active models suggest NBIX may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $166.36, within 6.7% of the current price of $155.92 — a consensus view that NBIX is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for NBIX?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NBIX?

CirclFi analyzes NBIX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NBIX?

Of the 9 models currently active on NBIX, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $340.25 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $83.58. CirclFi's published fair value for NBIX is the median of that range, $166.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 154% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NBIX a value trap in 2026?

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX) has a median fair value of $166.36 — within 6.7% of the current price of $155.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NBIX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NBIX valuation
  • Financial statements: Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000914475) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NBIX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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