BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) Fair Value 2026

ONC · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) trades at $366.73, versus a $90.75 median fair value across its 8 active models — 75.3% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $226.30.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONC
Price
$366.73
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $90.75, 75.3% below the current price of $366.73. Estimates range from $46.06 to $255.30. ONC scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ONC’s -75.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BeOne Medicines AG Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ONC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($366.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $226.30 -38.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $110.35 -69.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $71.15 -80.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $255.30 -30.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 4 additional models including EROIC Spread, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 8 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is ONC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $46.06 to $255.30

CirclFi's 8 active models place BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) between $46.06 and $255.30 per share, a spread of 231% of the median. The median of that range — $90.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ONC, against a current price of $366.73.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · RCMH-DCF
$46.06median $90.75$255.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$46.06
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$255.30
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ONC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ONC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BeOne Medicines AG's intrinsic value is estimated at $90.75. Trading at its current price of $366.73, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -75.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $255.30 (-30.4%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $46.06 (-87.4%). This +57.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ONC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ONC. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ONC is $90.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $226.30 on its own, implying -38.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONC Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, ONC ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places ONC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotechnology enterprise businesses. For BeOne Medicines AG, metrics like R&D burn rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ONC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for BeOne Medicines AG. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BeOne Medicines AG earns a quality score of 9.0/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +57.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONC's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BeOne Medicines AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 9.1CRMDCorMedix Inc.QOC 9.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2CGENCompugen Ltd.QOC 9.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2VCELVericel CorporationQOC 8.8TARSTarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 5.9SVRASavara Inc.QOC 5.0TNYATenaya Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.4EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: VRTX · CRMD · HALO · CGEN · AUPH · VCEL · TARS · SVRA · TNYA · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ONC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ONC’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.0FLNGFLEX LNG Ltd.QOC 9.0SYKStryker CorporationQOC 9.0BKNGBooking Holdings Inc.QOC 9.0KAROKarooooo Ltd.QOC 9.0DTDynatrace, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXPE · FLNG · SYK · BKNG · KARO · DT · NVDA

Where Does ONC Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ONC is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BeOne Medicines AG’s Valuation?

What is BeOne Medicines AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BeOne Medicines AG (ONC)'s intrinsic value at $90.75 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $46.06 to $255.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $226.30 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $366.73, 0 of 8 active models suggest ONC may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $90.75, 75.3% below the current price of $366.73 — a consensus view that ONC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BeOne Medicines AG's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for ONC?

BeOne Medicines AG's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONC?

CirclFi analyzes ONC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ONC?

Of the 8 models currently active on ONC, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $255.30 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $46.06. CirclFi's published fair value for ONC is the median of that range, $90.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 231% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ONC a value trap in 2026?

BeOne Medicines AG's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BeOne Medicines AG (ONC) has a median fair value of $90.75 — 75.3% below the current price of $366.73 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ONC valuation
  • Financial statements: BeOne Medicines AG 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001651308) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ONC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 8 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on ONC.

Unlock All 8 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

4 models hidden for ONC Unlock All 8 — $39/mo