Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) Fair Value 2026

TNYA · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) trades at $0.84, approximately 125% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.38. QOC: 4.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TNYA
Price
$0.84
Quality Score
4.4/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +74.4% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $0.73, 13.8% below the current price of $0.84. Estimates range from $0.04 to $1.47. TNYA scores 4.4/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.38 -55.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $0.74 -12.7%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $1.47 +74.4%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $0.81 -3.9%

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What Is Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $0.71. Trading at $0.84, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -16.3%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +74.4% (fair value: $1.47), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -95.5% ($0.04). The spread between these extremes — +169.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TNYA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TNYA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TNYA's intrinsic value at $0.38, implying -55.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TNYA Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, TNYA ranks #102 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.4 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TNYA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TNYA a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. scores 4.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +169.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TNYA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TNYA's 8 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.

What is Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.38. The Quality of Company score is 4.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TNYA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.84, 2 of 8 active models suggest TNYA may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $0.73, 13.8% below the current price of $0.84 — a consensus view that TNYA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.4 mean for TNYA?

Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 4.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TNYA?

CirclFi analyzes TNYA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TNYA a value trap in 2026?

Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Tenaya Therapeutics, Inc. (TNYA) has a median fair value of $0.73 — 13.8% below the current price of $0.84 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TNYA/ · Methodology

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