TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Fair Value 2026

TXMD · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) trades at $2.22, versus a $2.91 median fair value across its 6 active models — 31.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.08.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXMD
Price
$2.22
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +38.7% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $2.91, 31.2% above the current price of $2.22. Estimates range from $0.43 to $4.62. TXMD scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TXMD’s +31.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TherapeuticsMD, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXMD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.08 +38.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.80 +25.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.43 -80.7%
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What Is TXMD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.43 to $4.62

CirclFi's 6 active models place TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) between $0.43 and $4.62 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $2.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXMD, against a current price of $2.22.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.43median $2.91$4.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.43
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$4.62
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXMD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXMD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.91, suggesting a +31.2% median upside from the current price of $2.22. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $4.62 (+108.0%), versus ML-RIV at $0.43 (-80.7%). This +188.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TXMD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TXMD. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXMD is $2.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.08 on its own, implying +38.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXMD Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, TXMD ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. operates in a sector where revenue per drug is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TXMD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TXMD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXMD a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for TherapeuticsMD, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXMD's 6 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TherapeuticsMD, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

ZYBTZhengye Biotechnology Holding LimitedQOC 6.2DERMJourney Medical CorporationQOC 6.2CPIXCumberland Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.3EVOEvotec SEQOC 6.2CRDLCardiol Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.3EOLSEvolus, Inc.QOC 6.2SKYISky Century Investment, Inc.QOC 5.2SHPHShuttle Pharmaceuticals Holdings, Inc.QOC 3.6KNSAKiniksa Pharmaceuticals International, plcQOC 8.1UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: ZYBT · DERM · CPIX · EVO · CRDL · EOLS · SKYI · SHPH · KNSA · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXMD?

7 companies across all industries closest to TXMD’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

SIFSIFCO Industries, Inc.QOC 6.2BRAGBragg Gaming Group Inc.QOC 6.2BHSTBioHarvest Sciences Inc. Common StockQOC 6.2OXBROxbridge Re Holdings LimitedQOC 6.2HIVEHIVE Digital Technologies Ltd.QOC 6.2ZDGEZedge, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SIF · BRAG · BHST · OXBR · HIVE · ZDGE · NVDA

Where Does TXMD Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

TXMD is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TherapeuticsMD, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD)'s intrinsic value at $2.91 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.43 to $4.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.08 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.22, 4 of 6 active models suggest TXMD may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $2.91, 31.2% above the current price of $2.22 — a consensus view that TXMD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for TXMD?

TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXMD?

CirclFi analyzes TXMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXMD?

Of the 6 models currently active on TXMD, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $4.62 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.43. CirclFi's published fair value for TXMD is the median of that range, $2.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXMD a value trap in 2026?

TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) has a median fair value of $2.91 — 31.2% above the current price of $2.22 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXMD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXMD valuation
  • Financial statements: TherapeuticsMD, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000025743) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXMD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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