TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Fair Value 2026

TXMD · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) trades at $1.94, approximately 55% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.28. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXMD
Price
$1.94
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +120.9% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $1.99, within 2.3% of the current price of $1.94. Estimates range from $0.48 to $7.74. TXMD scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TherapeuticsMD, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.94)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $4.28 +120.9%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $1.17 -39.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.46 +27.0%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $0.68 -64.9%

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What Is TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $1.94. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $2.33 (+20.2% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Dynamic NAV targets $7.74 (+298.8%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.48 (-75.0%). This +373.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TXMD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TXMD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TXMD's intrinsic value at $4.28, implying +120.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXMD Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, TXMD ranks #95 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

As a biopharma enterprise, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. operates in a sector where revenue per drug is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TXMD should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TXMD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXMD a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for TherapeuticsMD, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +373.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXMD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXMD's 12 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TherapeuticsMD, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

AZNAstraZeneca PLCQOC 10.0CPRXCatalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 10.0HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, IQOC 10.0NVONovo Nordisk A/SQOC 10.0SIGASIGA Technologies Inc.QOC 10.0UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 10.0ZTSZoetis Inc.QOC 10.0RDYDr. Reddy's Laboratories LtdQOC 9.9

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About TherapeuticsMD, Inc.

What is TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.28. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXMD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.94, 7 of 12 active models suggest TXMD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $1.99, within 2.3% of the current price of $1.94 — a consensus view that TXMD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for TXMD?

TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXMD?

CirclFi analyzes TXMD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TXMD a value trap in 2026?

TherapeuticsMD, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, TherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD) has a median fair value of $1.99 — within 2.3% of the current price of $1.94 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXMD/ · Methodology

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