Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Fair Value 2026

BDSX · Services-Medical Laboratories ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) trades at $21.00, approximately 434% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.93. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BDSX
Price
$21.00
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $7.97, 62.1% below the current price of $21.00. Estimates range from $0.50 to $24.28. BDSX scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Biodesix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $3.93 -81.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $8.07 -61.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $7.96 -62.1%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $1.87 -91.1%

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What Is Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Biodesix, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.15, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.00. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-61.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $24.28 (+15.6%), versus ML-RIV at $0.50 (-97.6%). This +113.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BDSX?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BDSX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BDSX's intrinsic value at $3.93, implying -81.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BDSX Rank in Services-Medical Laboratories?

Among 24 Services-Medical Laboratories stocks, BDSX ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

Biodesix, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BDSX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BDSX a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Biodesix, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Biodesix, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +113.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BDSX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BDSX's 8 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Biodesix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Medical Laboratories Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Medical Laboratories stocks with 13-model coverage

CSTLCastle Biosciences, Inc.QOC 9.2VCYTVeracyte, Inc.QOC 8.8DGXQuest Diagnostics IncorporatedQOC 8.3CDNACareDx, Inc.QOC 7.8FLGTFulgent Genetics, Inc.QOC 7.7LHLabcorp Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6RDNTRadNet, Inc.QOC 7.1XGNExagen Inc.QOC 7.0

Read investment analysis: CSTL · VCYT · DGX · CDNA · FLGT

Frequently Asked Questions About Biodesix, Inc.

What is Biodesix, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.93. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BDSX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.00, 1 of 8 active models suggest BDSX may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $7.97, 62.1% below the current price of $21.00 — a consensus view that BDSX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Biodesix, Inc.'s business model in Services-Medical Laboratories.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for BDSX?

Biodesix, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BDSX?

CirclFi analyzes BDSX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BDSX a value trap in 2026?

Biodesix, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Biodesix, Inc. (BDSX) has a median fair value of $7.97 — 62.1% below the current price of $21.00 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BDSX/ · Methodology

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