Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Fair Value 2026

SPHR · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) trades at $136.30, versus a $36.89 median fair value across its 8 active models — 72.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $37.27.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPHR
Price
$136.30
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $36.89, 72.9% below the current price of $136.30. Estimates range from $18.15 to $58.51. SPHR scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. SPHR’s -72.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -29.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sphere Entertainment Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPHR?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($136.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.27 -72.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $36.51 -73.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $46.91 -65.6%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $18.27 -86.6%
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What Is SPHR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $18.15 to $58.51

CirclFi's 8 active models place Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) between $18.15 and $58.51 per share, a spread of 109% of the median. The median of that range — $36.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPHR, against a current price of $136.30.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$18.15median $36.89$58.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$18.15
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$58.51
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPHR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPHR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sphere Entertainment Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $36.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $136.30. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-72.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About SPHR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for SPHR. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SPHR is $36.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $37.27 on its own, implying -72.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPHR Rank in Entertainment?

Among 53 Entertainment stocks, SPHR ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Entertainment Stocks →

As a media and communications company, Sphere Entertainment Co. operates in a sector where fiber/5G penetration is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SPHR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SPHR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPHR a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Sphere Entertainment Co.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Sphere Entertainment Co.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+29.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPHR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPHR's 8 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sphere Entertainment Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.QOC 7.2AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding CorporationQOC 7.2RSVRReservoir Media, Inc.QOC 7.4MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5GAIAGaia, Inc.QOC 6.7CNVSCineverse Corp.QOC 5.7AASPAgassi Sports Entertainment Corp.QOC 4.8NWSANews CorporationQOC 8.4NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: AMCX · AENT · RSVR · MCS · TKO · GAIA · CNVS · AASP · NWSA · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPHR?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPHR’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

FATNFatPipe, Inc.QOC 7.2NRUCNational Rural Utilities CooperQOC 7.2PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2SFNCSimmons First National CorporationQOC 7.2ALBAlbemarle CorporationQOC 7.2FDXFFedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FATN · NRUC · PTEN · SFNC · ALB · FDXF · NVDA

Where Does SPHR Sit in CirclFi's Entertainment Rankings?

SPHR is ranked against every other Entertainment stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Entertainment stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sphere Entertainment Co.’s Valuation?

What is Sphere Entertainment Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR)'s intrinsic value at $36.89 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $18.15 to $58.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $37.27 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPHR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $136.30, 0 of 8 active models suggest SPHR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $36.89, 72.9% below the current price of $136.30 — a consensus view that SPHR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sphere Entertainment Co.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for SPHR?

Sphere Entertainment Co.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPHR?

CirclFi analyzes SPHR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPHR?

Of the 8 models currently active on SPHR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $58.51 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $18.15. CirclFi's published fair value for SPHR is the median of that range, $36.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 109% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPHR a value trap in 2026?

Sphere Entertainment Co.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) has a median fair value of $36.89 — 72.9% below the current price of $136.30 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPHR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPHR valuation
  • Financial statements: Sphere Entertainment Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001795250) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPHR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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