TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Fair Value 2026

TKO · Entertainment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) trades at $184.34, versus a $89.44 median fair value across its 10 active models — 51.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $145.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
TKO
Price
$184.34
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $89.44, 51.5% below the current price of $184.34. Estimates range from $15.94 to $385.63. TKO scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TKO’s -51.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Entertainment sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TKO?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($184.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $145.96 -20.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $99.95 -45.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $156.69 -15.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.50 -90.0%
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What Is TKO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $15.94 to $385.63

CirclFi's 10 active models place TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) between $15.94 and $385.63 per share, a spread of 413% of the median. The median of that range — $89.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TKO, against a current price of $184.34.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Markov DDM
$15.94median $89.44$385.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$15.94
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$385.63
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TKO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TKO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $89.44. Trading at its current price of $184.34, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -51.5%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +109.2% (fair value: $385.63), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -91.4% ($15.94). The spread between these extremes — +200.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TKO?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TKO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TKO is $89.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $145.96 on its own, implying -20.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TKO Rank in Entertainment?

Among 53 Entertainment stocks, TKO ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Entertainment Stocks →

The Entertainment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to telecom operator businesses. For TKO Group Holdings, Inc., metrics like average revenue per user (ARPU) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TKO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TKO a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for TKO Group Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +200.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TKO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TKO's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TKO Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Entertainment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Entertainment stocks with 13-model coverage

MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports Corp.QOC 7.5RSVRReservoir Media, Inc.QOC 7.4AERAAI Era Corp.QOC 7.6AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.QOC 7.2VSNTVersant Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.7SPHRSphere Entertainment Co.QOC 7.2TOONKartoon Studios Inc.QOC 6.1STRZStarz Entertainment Corp.QOC 5.0FOXAFox CorporationQOC 8.5NFLXNetflix, Inc.QOC 9.8IMAXIMAX CorporationQOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MSGS · RSVR · AERA · AMCX · VSNT · SPHR · TOON · STRZ · FOXA · NFLX · IMAX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TKO?

7 companies across all industries closest to TKO’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

LFMDLifeMD, Inc.QOC 7.5ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanyQOC 7.5CBZCBIZ, Inc.QOC 7.5COFCapital One Financial CorporationQOC 7.5OMCLOmnicell, Inc.QOC 7.5CCitigroup Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LFMD · ADM · CBZ · COF · OMCL · C · NVDA

Where Does TKO Sit in CirclFi's Entertainment Rankings?

TKO is ranked against every other Entertainment stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Entertainment stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TKO Group Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO)'s intrinsic value at $89.44 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.94 to $385.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $145.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TKO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $184.34, 1 of 10 active models suggest TKO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $89.44, 51.5% below the current price of $184.34 — a consensus view that TKO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Entertainment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for TKO?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TKO?

CirclFi analyzes TKO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TKO?

Of the 10 models currently active on TKO, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $385.63 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $15.94. CirclFi's published fair value for TKO is the median of that range, $89.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 413% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TKO a value trap in 2026?

TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) has a median fair value of $89.44 — 51.5% below the current price of $184.34 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TKO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TKO valuation
  • Financial statements: TKO Group Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001973266) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TKO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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