The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Fair Value 2026

TJX · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) trades at $134.22, versus a $86.13 median fair value across its 10 active models — 35.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $130.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
TJX
Price
$134.22
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +44.8% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $86.13, 35.8% below the current price of $134.22. Estimates range from $34.54 to $194.36. TJX scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TJX’s -35.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +4.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The TJX Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TJX?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($134.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $130.89 -2.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.96 -59.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $91.87 -31.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $194.36 +44.8%
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What Is TJX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $34.54 to $194.36

CirclFi's 10 active models place The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) between $34.54 and $194.36 per share, a spread of 186% of the median. The median of that range — $86.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TJX, against a current price of $134.22.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$34.54median $86.13$194.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$34.54
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$194.36
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TJX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TJX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The TJX Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $86.13. Trading at its current price of $134.22, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -35.8%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $194.36 (+44.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $34.54 (-74.3%). This +119.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The TJX Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TJX?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TJX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TJX is $86.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $130.89 on its own, implying -2.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TJX Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 34 Apparel Retail stocks, TJX ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places TJX in the top tier.

The TJX Companies, Inc.'s positioning within the Apparel Retail segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TJX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TJX a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The TJX Companies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The TJX Companies, Inc. scores 8.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +119.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TJX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TJX's 10 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The TJX Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

BOOTBoot Barn Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9LULUlululemon athletica inc.QOC 9.0IVDNInnovative Designs, Inc.QOC 8.5ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.QOC 8.4AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.QOC 7.8DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4TLYSTilly's, Inc.QOC 5.5BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BOOT · URBN · LULU · IVDN · ANF · ROST · AEO · DLTH · TLYS · BKE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TJX?

7 companies across all industries closest to TJX’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9PLABPhotronics, Inc.QOC 8.9ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustQOC 8.9YELPYelp Inc.QOC 8.9CPRTCopart, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WAB · PLAB · ERIE · FRT · YELP · CPRT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The TJX Companies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The TJX Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX)'s intrinsic value at $86.13 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $34.54 to $194.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $130.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TJX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $134.22, 1 of 10 active models suggest TJX may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $86.13, 35.8% below the current price of $134.22 — a consensus view that TJX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The TJX Companies, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for TJX?

The TJX Companies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TJX?

CirclFi analyzes TJX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TJX?

Of the 10 models currently active on TJX, First Chicago is the most bullish at $194.36 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $34.54. CirclFi's published fair value for TJX is the median of that range, $86.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 186% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TJX a value trap in 2026?

The TJX Companies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) has a median fair value of $86.13 — 35.8% below the current price of $134.22 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TJX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TJX valuation
  • Financial statements: The TJX Companies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000109198) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TJX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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