Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Fair Value 2026

ERIE · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) trades at $223.22, versus a $178.69 median fair value across its 6 active models — 19.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ERIE
Price
$223.22
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $178.69, 19.9% below the current price of $223.22. Estimates range from $90.90 to $245.32. ERIE scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ERIE’s -19.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -5.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Erie Indemnity Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ERIE?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($223.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $118.79 -46.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $164.87 -26.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $90.90 -59.3%
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What Is ERIE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $90.90 to $245.32

CirclFi's 6 active models place Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) between $90.90 and $245.32 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $178.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ERIE, against a current price of $223.22.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$90.90median $178.69$245.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$90.90
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$245.32
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ERIE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Erie Indemnity Company at its current price of $223.22. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $178.69 (-19.9% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $245.32 (+9.9%), versus Markov DDM at $90.90 (-59.3%). This +69.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ERIE?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ERIE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ERIE is $178.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ERIE Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 23 Insurance Brokers stocks, ERIE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places ERIE in the top tier.

Within the Insurance Brokers space, Erie Indemnity Company competes in an environment where premium growth rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ERIE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ERIE a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Erie Indemnity Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Erie Indemnity Company is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +69.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ERIE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ERIE's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Erie Indemnity Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.QOC 4.1WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.4XHGXChange TEC.INCQOC 4.3GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.QOC 8.4AONAon plcQOC 8.2TWFGTWFG, Inc.QOC 7.6BWINThe Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: CRVL · MRSH · EZRA · WTW · XHG · GSHD · AON · TWFG · BWIN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ERIE?

7 companies across all industries closest to ERIE’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

YELPYelp Inc.QOC 8.9SPXCSPX Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9PAYPaymentus Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.9CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 8.9AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9CWCOConsolidated Water Co. Ltd.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YELP · SPXC · PAY · CHWY · AIZ · CWCO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Erie Indemnity Company’s Valuation?

What is Erie Indemnity Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE)'s intrinsic value at $178.69 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $90.90 to $245.32. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ERIE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $223.22, 2 of 6 active models suggest ERIE may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $178.69, 19.9% below the current price of $223.22 — a consensus view that ERIE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Erie Indemnity Company's business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for ERIE?

Erie Indemnity Company's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ERIE?

CirclFi analyzes ERIE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ERIE?

Of the 6 models currently active on ERIE, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $245.32 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $90.90. CirclFi's published fair value for ERIE is the median of that range, $178.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ERIE a value trap in 2026?

Erie Indemnity Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) has a median fair value of $178.69 — 19.9% below the current price of $223.22 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ERIE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ERIE valuation
  • Financial statements: Erie Indemnity Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000922621) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ERIE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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