Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) Fair Value 2026

MRSH · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) trades at $190.00, versus a $185.41 median fair value across its 6 active models — 2.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MRSH
Price
$190.00
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +49.2% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $185.41, within 2.4% of the current price of $190.00. Estimates range from $91.32 to $323.88. MRSH scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MRSH’s -2.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -18.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MRSH?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($190.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $91.32 -51.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $196.20 +3.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $283.45 +49.2%
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What Is MRSH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $91.32 to $323.88

CirclFi's 6 active models place Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) between $91.32 and $323.88 per share, a spread of 125% of the median. The median of that range — $185.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MRSH, against a current price of $190.00.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$91.32median $185.41$323.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$91.32
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$323.88
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MRSH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MRSH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $190.00. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $185.41 (-2.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $323.88 (+70.5%), versus EPV at $91.32 (-51.9%). This +122.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MRSH?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MRSH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MRSH is $185.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MRSH Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 21 Insurance Brokers stocks, MRSH ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places MRSH in the top tier.

The Insurance Brokers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to risk-bearing enterprise businesses. For Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., metrics like combined ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MRSH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRSH a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +122.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MRSH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MRSH's 6 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9GSHDGoosehead Insurance, Inc.QOC 8.5CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5EZRAReliance Global Group, Inc.QOC 3.9BROBrown & Brown, Inc.QOC 8.3AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.QOC 7.9LIFEEthos Technologies Inc.QOC 7.5ZBAOZhibao Technology Inc.QOC 5.5

Read investment analysis: ERIE · GSHD · CRVL · WTW · EZRA · BRO · AJG · LIFE · ZBAO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MRSH?

7 companies across all industries closest to MRSH’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

KEQUKewaunee Scientific CorporationQOC 8.5CBNKCapital Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.QOC 8.5REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.5APGAPi Group CorporationQOC 8.5DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KEQU · CBNK · MRVL · REGN · APG · DMC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH)'s intrinsic value at $185.41 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $91.32 to $323.88. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MRSH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $190.00, 3 of 6 active models suggest MRSH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $185.41, within 2.4% of the current price of $190.00 — a consensus view that MRSH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for MRSH?

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MRSH?

CirclFi analyzes MRSH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MRSH?

Of the 6 models currently active on MRSH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $323.88 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $91.32. CirclFi's published fair value for MRSH is the median of that range, $185.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 125% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MRSH a value trap in 2026?

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) has a median fair value of $185.41 — within 2.4% of the current price of $190.00 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MRSH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MRSH valuation
  • Financial statements: Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000062709) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MRSH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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