Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Fair Value 2026

GSHD · Insurance Brokers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) trades at $70.45, versus a $57.48 median fair value across its 2 active models — 18.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GSHD
Price
$70.45
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +8.8% upside with 45% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $57.48, 18.4% below the current price of $70.45. Estimates range from $38.32 to $76.64. GSHD scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GSHD’s -18.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance Brokers sector median is -18.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GSHD?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $76.64 +8.8%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $38.32 -45.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $57.48, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $70.45. While the median implied return is -18.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +54.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $76.64 (+8.8%), while FTNN — the most conservative — estimates $38.32 (-45.6%). This +54.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GSHD?

2 of 13 models are currently active for GSHD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GSHD is $57.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GSHD Rank in Insurance Brokers?

Among 21 Insurance Brokers stocks, GSHD ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places GSHD in the top tier.

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance Brokers segment means that expense ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including investment income yield — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GSHD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GSHD a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Goosehead Insurance, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +54.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GSHD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GSHD's 2 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Goosehead Insurance, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance Brokers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Insurance Brokers stocks with 13-model coverage

MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited CompanyQOC 8.5ERIEErie Indemnity CompanyQOC 8.9BROBrown & Brown, Inc.QOC 8.3CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1AONAon plcQOC 8.2QDMIQDM International Inc.QOC 7.6HUIZHuize Holding LimitedQOC 7.4AIFUAIFU Inc.QOC 5.2

Read investment analysis: MRSH · WTW · ERIE · BRO · CRVL · AON · QDMI · HUIZ · AIFU

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GSHD?

7 companies across all industries closest to GSHD’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

ENSGThe Ensign Group, Inc.QOC 8.5IVDNInnovative Designs, Inc.QOC 8.5NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc.QOC 8.5IEXIDEX CorporationQOC 8.5PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ENSG · IVDN · NWPX · IEX · PLOW · SKYW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD)'s intrinsic value at $57.48 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $38.32 to $76.64. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GSHD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.45, 1 of 2 active models suggest GSHD may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $57.48, 18.4% below the current price of $70.45 — a consensus view that GSHD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s business model in Insurance Brokers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for GSHD?

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GSHD?

CirclFi analyzes GSHD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GSHD a value trap in 2026?

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) has a median fair value of $57.48 — 18.4% below the current price of $70.45 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GSHD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GSHD valuation
  • Financial statements: Goosehead Insurance, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001726978) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GSHD as of ; valuations recomputed .