Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Fair Value 2026

GENI · Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) trades at $6.40, approximately 594% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.92. QOC: 2.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GENI
Price
$6.40
Quality Score
2.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +1.9% upside with 8% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.5/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $5.24, 18.1% below the current price of $6.40. Estimates range from $0.57 to $8.02. GENI scores 2.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Genius Sports Limited Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $0.92 -85.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $5.67 -11.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.73 -57.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $6.52 +1.9%

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What Is Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Genius Sports Limited at its current price of $6.40. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $4.44 (-30.6% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $8.02 (+25.4%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $0.57 (-91.1%). This +116.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Genius Sports Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GENI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GENI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GENI's intrinsic value at $0.92, implying -85.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GENI Rank in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation?

Among 22 Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks, GENI ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.5 signals below-average fundamentals.

Genius Sports Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GENI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GENI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Genius Sports Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Genius Sports Limited is rated at 2.5/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GENI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GENI's 12 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Genius Sports Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation stocks with 13-model coverage

MSGEMadison Square Garden EntertainQOC 9.7SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 8.8PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.QOC 8.6DISWalt Disney Company (The)QOC 8.1PRSUPursuit Attractions and HospitaQOC 8.0MTNVail Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.8RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc.QOC 7.7MSGSMadison Square Garden Sports CoQOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: MSGE · SGHC · PRKS · DIS · PRSU

Frequently Asked Questions About Genius Sports Limited

What is Genius Sports Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.92. The Quality of Company score is 2.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GENI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.40, 4 of 12 active models suggest GENI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $5.24, 18.1% below the current price of $6.40 — a consensus view that GENI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Genius Sports Limited's business model in Services-Miscellaneous Amusement & Recreation.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.5 mean for GENI?

Genius Sports Limited's QOC of 2.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GENI?

CirclFi analyzes GENI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GENI a value trap in 2026?

Genius Sports Limited's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Genius Sports Limited (GENI) has a median fair value of $5.24 — 18.1% below the current price of $6.40 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GENI/ · Methodology

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