Hecla Mining Company (HL) Fair Value 2026

HL · Other Precious Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hecla Mining Company (HL) trades at $21.43, versus a $8.44 median fair value across its 10 active models — 60.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.14.

Key Facts

Ticker
HL
Price
$21.43
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +20.4% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hecla Mining Company (HL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Hecla Mining Company (HL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $8.44, 60.6% below the current price of $21.43. Estimates range from $1.30 to $25.81. HL scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HL’s -60.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hecla Mining Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.14 -85.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.30 -93.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.38 -60.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.81 +20.4%
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What Is HL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.30 to $25.81

CirclFi's 10 active models place Hecla Mining Company (HL) between $1.30 and $25.81 per share, a spread of 290% of the median. The median of that range — $8.44 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HL, against a current price of $21.43.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$1.30median $8.44$25.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.30
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$25.81
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hecla Mining Company (HL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hecla Mining Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $8.44. Trading at its current price of $21.43, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.6%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +20.4% (fair value: $25.81), while EPV is the most conservative at -93.9% ($1.30). The spread between these extremes — +114.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HL is $8.44 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.14 on its own, implying -85.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HL Rank in Other Precious Metals & Mining?

Among 26 Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, HL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places HL in the top tier.

Hecla Mining Company's positioning within the Other Precious Metals & Mining segment means that margin expansion trajectory plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including infrastructure spending cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Hecla Mining Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hecla Mining Company earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +114.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HL's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hecla Mining Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Precious Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.QOC 2.0TFPMTriple Flag Precious Metals Corp.QOC 8.1ITRGIntegra Resources Corp.QOC 2.1VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 8.0MTAMetalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd.QOC 2.3DYNRDynaResource, Inc.QOC 7.8LODEComstock Inc.QOC 6.1AUMNGolden Minerals CompanyQOC 4.6GMTLGuardian Metal Resources PLCQOC 3.5

Read investment analysis: ASM · TFPM · ITRG · VOXR · MTA · DYNR · LODE · AUMN · GMTL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HL?

7 companies across all industries closest to HL’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

VITLVital Farms, Inc.QOC 8.6BCEBCE Inc.QOC 8.6NTCTNetScout Systems, Inc.QOC 8.6EBAYeBay Inc.QOC 8.6NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6NECBNortheast Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VITL · BCE · NTCT · EBAY · NAGE · NECB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hecla Mining Company’s Valuation?

What is Hecla Mining Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hecla Mining Company (HL)'s intrinsic value at $8.44 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.30 to $25.81. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.14 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.43, 2 of 10 active models suggest HL may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $8.44, 60.6% below the current price of $21.43 — a consensus view that HL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hecla Mining Company's business model in Other Precious Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for HL?

Hecla Mining Company's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HL?

CirclFi analyzes HL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HL?

Of the 10 models currently active on HL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $25.81 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.30. CirclFi's published fair value for HL is the median of that range, $8.44, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 290% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HL a value trap in 2026?

Hecla Mining Company's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Hecla Mining Company (HL) has a median fair value of $8.44 — 60.6% below the current price of $21.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HL valuation
  • Financial statements: Hecla Mining Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000719413) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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