Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Fair Value 2026

TFPM · Other Precious Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) trades at $35.02, versus a $24.38 median fair value across its 10 active models — 30.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $55.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
TFPM
Price
$35.02
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +59.6% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $24.38, 30.4% below the current price of $35.02. Estimates range from $10.86 to $55.89. TFPM scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TFPM’s -30.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TFPM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.02)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $55.89 +59.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.92 -23.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $24.20 -30.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.86 -69.0%
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What Is TFPM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $10.86 to $55.89

CirclFi's 10 active models place Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) between $10.86 and $55.89 per share, a spread of 185% of the median. The median of that range — $24.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TFPM, against a current price of $35.02.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$10.86median $24.38$55.89
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$10.86
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$55.89
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TFPM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TFPM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. at its current price of $35.02. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $24.38 (-30.4% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $55.89 (+59.6%), versus EROIC at $10.86 (-69.0%). This +128.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TFPM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TFPM. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TFPM is $24.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $55.89 on its own, implying +59.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TFPM Rank in Other Precious Metals & Mining?

Among 26 Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, TFPM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places TFPM in the top tier.

As a industrial enterprise, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. operates in a sector where book-to-bill ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TFPM should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TFPM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TFPM a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TFPM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TFPM's 10 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Precious Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

HLHecla Mining CompanyQOC 8.6VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 8.0ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.QOC 2.0DYNRDynaResource, Inc.QOC 7.8ITRGIntegra Resources Corp.QOC 2.1ELEElemental Royalty CorporationQOC 7.6SBSWSibanye Stillwater LimitedQOC 5.7RITEMineralRite CorporationQOC 4.6SINDSinda Ltd.QOC 3.4

Read investment analysis: HL · VOXR · ASM · DYNR · ITRG · ELE · SBSW · RITE · SIND

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TFPM?

7 companies across all industries closest to TFPM’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

FDBCFidelity D & D Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1TMToyota Motor CorporationQOC 8.1MHOM/I Homes, Inc.QOC 8.1SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyQOC 8.1IMPPImperial Petroleum Inc.QOC 8.1UWHRUwharrie Capital CorpQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FDBC · TM · MHO · SHW · IMPP · UWHR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)'s intrinsic value at $24.38 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.86 to $55.89. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $55.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.02, 2 of 10 active models suggest TFPM may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $24.38, 30.4% below the current price of $35.02 — a consensus view that TFPM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s business model in Other Precious Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for TFPM?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TFPM?

CirclFi analyzes TFPM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TFPM?

Of the 10 models currently active on TFPM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $55.89 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $10.86. CirclFi's published fair value for TFPM is the median of that range, $24.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 185% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TFPM a value trap in 2026?

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) has a median fair value of $24.38 — 30.4% below the current price of $35.02 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TFPM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TFPM valuation
  • Financial statements: Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001829726) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TFPM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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