MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Fair Value 2026

MTSI · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) trades at $277.15, versus a $47.48 median fair value across its 9 active models — 82.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $18.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
MTSI
Price
$277.15
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $47.48, 82.9% below the current price of $277.15. Estimates range from $6.91 to $373.02. MTSI scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MTSI’s -82.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MTSI?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($277.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.68 -93.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.91 -97.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $47.48 -82.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $100.86 -63.6%
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What Is MTSI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.91 to $373.02

CirclFi's 9 active models place MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) between $6.91 and $373.02 per share, a spread of 771% of the median. The median of that range — $47.48 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MTSI, against a current price of $277.15.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.91median $47.48$373.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$6.91
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$373.02
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MTSI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MTSI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $47.48, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $277.15. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-82.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $373.02 (+34.6%), versus EPV at $6.91 (-97.5%). This +132.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MTSI?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MTSI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MTSI is $47.48 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $18.68 on its own, implying -93.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MTSI Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, MTSI ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

Within the Semiconductors space, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where R&D-to-revenue ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MTSI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MTSI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MTSI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MTSI's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7SMTCSemtech CorporationQOC 7.6ONON Semiconductor CorporationQOC 7.8POWIPower Integrations, Inc.QOC 7.5DIODDiodes IncorporatedQOC 7.9SITMSiTime CorporationQOC 7.4ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 6.7FABCFabric.AI, Inc.QOC 4.3RMBSRambus Inc.QOC 9.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: GFS · SMTC · ON · POWI · DIOD · SITM · ASX · FABC · RMBS · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MTSI?

6 companies across all industries closest to MTSI’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6

Read investment analysis: VTSI · LXU · QSR · HUM · TXG · CCC

Where Does MTSI Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

MTSI is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI)'s intrinsic value at $47.48 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.91 to $373.02. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $18.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MTSI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $277.15, 1 of 9 active models suggest MTSI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $47.48, 82.9% below the current price of $277.15 — a consensus view that MTSI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for MTSI?

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MTSI?

CirclFi analyzes MTSI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MTSI?

Of the 9 models currently active on MTSI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $373.02 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $6.91. CirclFi's published fair value for MTSI is the median of that range, $47.48, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 771% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MTSI a value trap in 2026?

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) has a median fair value of $47.48 — 82.9% below the current price of $277.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MTSI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MTSI valuation

Market data for MTSI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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