STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Fair Value 2026

STM · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) trades at $49.38, versus a $57.07 median fair value across its 2 active models — 15.6% above the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STM
Price
$49.38
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +125.7% upside with 25% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $57.07, 15.6% above the current price of $49.38. Estimates range from $2.69 to $111.46. STM scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. STM’s +15.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -60.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy STMicroelectronics N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STM?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.69 -94.6%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $111.46 +125.7%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, STMicroelectronics N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.07, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $49.38. With a median implied return of +15.6% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +220.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +125.7% (fair value: $111.46), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -94.6% ($2.69). The spread between these extremes — +220.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STM?

2 of 13 models are currently active for STM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STM is $57.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STM Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, STM ranks #65 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

The Semiconductors sector introduces analytical considerations specific to chip maker businesses. For STMicroelectronics N.V., metrics like wafer utilization rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is STM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STM a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for STMicroelectronics N.V.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, STMicroelectronics N.V. earns a quality score of 2.6/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +220.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STM's 2 active models, average confidence is 29%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy STMicroelectronics N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

TSEMTower Semiconductor Ltd.QOC 2.7WKEYWISeKey International Holding AGQOC 2.6ARMArm Holdings plcQOC 3.1HIMXHimax Technologies, Inc.QOC 2.5SIMOSilicon Motion Technology CorporationQOC 3.2SQNSSequans Communications S.A.QOC 2.4QCOMQUALCOMM IncorporatedQOC 8.9PIImpinj, Inc.QOC 7.4QUIKQuickLogic CorporationQOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: TSEM · WKEY · ARM · HIMX · SIMO · SQNS · QCOM · PI · QUIK · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STM?

5 companies across all industries closest to STM’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

CLWTEuro Tech Holdings Company LimitedQOC 2.6TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6AGROAdecoagro S.A.QOC 2.6ARISAris Mining CorporationQOC 2.6BUDAnheuser-Busch InBev SA/NVQOC 2.6

Read investment analysis: CLWT · TKLF · AGRO · ARIS · BUD

Where Does STM Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

STM is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About STMicroelectronics N.V.’s Valuation?

What is STMicroelectronics N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM)'s intrinsic value at $57.07 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.69 to $111.46. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.38, 1 of 2 active models suggest STM may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $57.07, 15.6% above the current price of $49.38 — a consensus view that STM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits STMicroelectronics N.V.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for STM?

STMicroelectronics N.V.'s QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STM?

CirclFi analyzes STM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STM a value trap in 2026?

STMicroelectronics N.V.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, STMicroelectronics N.V. (STM) has a median fair value of $57.07 — 15.6% above the current price of $49.38 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STM valuation
  • Financial statements: STMicroelectronics N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000932787) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STM as of ; valuations recomputed .