Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) Fair Value 2026

ARIS · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) trades at $20.27. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARIS
Price
$20.27
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +150.3% upside with 24% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARIS?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $50.73 +150.3%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Aris Mining Corporation. Trading at $20.27 against an estimated intrinsic value of $50.73, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +150.3% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About ARIS?

1 of 13 models are currently active for ARIS. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARIS Rank in Gold?

Among 58 Gold stocks, ARIS ranks #53 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Aris Mining Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ARIS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARIS a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Aris Mining Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aris Mining Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 2.6/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARIS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARIS's 1 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aris Mining Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

EGOEldorado Gold CorporationQOC 2.7CMCLCaledonia Mining Corporation PlcQOC 2.6BTGB2Gold Corp.QOC 2.8CNLCollective Mining Ltd.QOC 2.6WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp.QOC 2.8AAUCAllied Gold CorporationQOC 2.6AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.4DCDakota Gold Corp.QOC 5.5BSAIBluSky AI, Inc.QOC 4.6FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: EGO · CMCL · BTG · CNL · WPM · AAUC · AU · DC · BSAI · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARIS?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARIS’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

TKLFTokyo Lifestyle Co., Ltd.QOC 2.6WKEYWISeKey International Holding AGQOC 2.6STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.QOC 2.6HCHLHappy City Holdings LimitedQOC 2.6CLWTEuro Tech Holdings Company LimitedQOC 2.6CAAPCorporación América Airports S.A.QOC 2.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TKLF · WKEY · STM · HCHL · CLWT · CAAP · NVDA

Where Does ARIS Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

ARIS is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aris Mining Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Aris Mining Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS). The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARIS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.27, 1 of 1 active models suggest ARIS may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aris Mining Corporation's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for ARIS?

Aris Mining Corporation's QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARIS?

CirclFi analyzes ARIS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ARIS a value trap in 2026?

Aris Mining Corporation's Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Aris Mining Corporation (ARIS) a Quality of Company score of 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARIS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARIS valuation
  • Financial statements: Aris Mining Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001964504) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARIS as of ; valuations recomputed .