Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) Fair Value 2026

CMCL · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) trades at $24.84, versus a $61.11 median fair value across its 2 active models — 146.0% above the current price. QOC: 2.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CMCL
Price
$24.84
Quality Score
2.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +282.1% upside with 24% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.6/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $61.11, 146.0% above the current price of $24.84. Estimates range from $27.32 to $94.90. CMCL scores 2.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CMCL’s +146.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -19.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CMCL?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $27.32 +10.0%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $94.90 +282.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is potentially undervalued at its current price of $24.84. Based on our 13-model framework, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $61.11 — representing +146.0% implied upside — with 2 out of 2 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $94.90 (+282.1%), versus Markov DDM at $27.32 (+10.0%). This +272.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CMCL?

2 of 13 models are currently active for CMCL. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CMCL is $61.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CMCL Rank in Gold?

Among 59 Gold stocks, CMCL ranks #56 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.6 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CMCL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CMCL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's fundamental quality profile registers 2.6/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +272.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CMCL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CMCL's 2 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

CNLCollective Mining Ltd.QOC 2.6AAUCAllied Gold CorporationQOC 2.6ARISAris Mining CorporationQOC 2.6EQXEquinox Gold Corp.QOC 2.4EGOEldorado Gold CorporationQOC 2.7TRXTRX Gold CorporationQOC 2.3KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2IAUXi-80 Gold Corp.QOC 5.5HYMCHycroft Mining Holding CorporationQOC 4.4FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CNL · AAUC · ARIS · EQX · EGO · TRX · KGC · IAUX · HYMC · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CMCL?

5 companies across all industries closest to CMCL’s Quality of Company score of 2.6/10.

VALEVale S.A.QOC 2.6PHARPharming Group N.V.QOC 2.6DRTSAlpha Tau Medical Ltd.QOC 2.6HSBCHSBC Holdings plcQOC 2.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VALE · PHAR · DRTS · HSBC · NVDA

Where Does CMCL Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

CMCL is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc’s Valuation?

What is Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)'s intrinsic value at $61.11 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $27.32 to $94.90. The Quality of Company score is 2.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CMCL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.84, 2 of 2 active models suggest CMCL may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $61.11, 146.0% above the current price of $24.84 — a consensus view that CMCL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.6 mean for CMCL?

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's QOC of 2.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CMCL?

CirclFi analyzes CMCL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CMCL a value trap in 2026?

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL) has a median fair value of $61.11 — 146.0% above the current price of $24.84 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CMCL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CMCL valuation
  • Financial statements: Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000766011) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CMCL as of ; valuations recomputed .