Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) Fair Value 2026

CNL · Gold and Silver Ores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) trades at $12.34, approximately 274% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.30. QOC: 2.3/10. 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNL
Price
$12.34
Quality Score
2.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +48.5% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $8.91, 27.8% below the current price of $12.34. Estimates range from $0.73 to $18.33. CNL scores 2.3/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Collective Mining Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $3.30 -73.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $5.30 -57.1%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $18.33 +48.5%

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What Is Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Collective Mining Ltd. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $12.34. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $9.33 (-24.4% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $18.33 (+48.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.73 (-94.1%). This +142.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CNL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CNL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CNL's intrinsic value at $3.30, implying -73.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNL Rank in Gold and Silver Ores?

Among 62 Gold and Silver Ores stocks, CNL ranks #45 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Gold and Silver Ores Stocks →

Collective Mining Ltd. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CNL a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for CNL. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Collective Mining Ltd.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Collective Mining Ltd. is rated at 2.3/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNL's 6 active models, average confidence is 8%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Collective Mining Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold and Silver Ores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Gold and Silver Ores stocks with 13-model coverage

FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.4NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.2HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimQOC 9.1IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.7KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 8.1VOXRVox Royalty Corp.QOC 7.5

Read investment analysis: FSM · NEM · DRD · HMY · IDR

See all Gold and Silver Ores stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Collective Mining Ltd.

What is Collective Mining Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.30. The Quality of Company score is 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.34, 3 of 6 active models suggest CNL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $8.91, 27.8% below the current price of $12.34 — a consensus view that CNL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Collective Mining Ltd.'s business model in Gold and Silver Ores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.3 mean for CNL?

Collective Mining Ltd.'s QOC of 2.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNL?

CirclFi analyzes CNL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CNL a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for CNL at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Collective Mining Ltd. (CNL) has a median fair value of $8.91 — 27.8% below the current price of $12.34 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CNL/ · Methodology

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